JPL-Caltech / NASA
The YR4 asteroid, which now has 2.3% probabilities of shocking with Earth by 2032, also has a probability of 0.3% to collide with the moon.
NASA scientists updated the likelihood that asteroid 2024 YR4 collides with Earth on December 22, 2032, increasing the probabilities of 1.2% to 2,3%.
This means that the 55 -meter asteroid, which travels at about 48,000 km/h, has a probability of impact from 1 in 43. Although it is not large enough to threaten human civilization, an impact can be devastating, releasing 8 megatones of energy – more than 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb.
Interestingly, the new calculations also suggest that the asteroid has 0.3% of hypotheses to reach the moon. According to David Rankin, a Catalina Sky Survey operations engineer, such a collision would be highly visible from Earth, producing an explosion equivalent to over 340 Hiroshima pumps and leaving a crater up to 2 km in diameter. However, experts agree that any impact -ejected debris arderiam na atmosfera da terra and would not constitute a real threat to the planet.
Although an impact of the 2024 YR4 is relatively small compared to the largest moon crater, the South-Aitken Pole Basin, which extends for 2400 km, would be an extraordinary astronomical event.
To improve forecasts, it was granted to an international team of scientists Emergency access to the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) To study the size and trajectory of the asteroid before it is out of sight for several years. While terrestrial telescopes estimated the dimensions of 2024 YR4 through reflected light analysis, JWST will measure asteroid heat emissions, providing a more accurate assessment of its size and surface.
Despite updated calculations, experts advise the public not to panic. “From now on, there is still 97.9% of the hypotheses of failing over the earth,” Rankin told, stressing that although the probabilities have duplicated, they are still low.
With JWST’s ongoing observations and improvements, astronomers will continue to monitor the 2024 YR4 trajectory. For now, scientists stress that this asteroid, though intriguing, is no reason for alarm.
