The research confirms a tendency captured by the research a significant drop in government popularity. In January, the genius/Quarest pointed out that 37% of Brazilians negatively evaluated the government while 31% rated positively. In February, Datafolha registered a positive assessment of only 24%, with 41% negative assessment. Although some believe this fall is just a conjunctural phenomenon, it is looking to me structural.
The base it elected in 2022 is frustrated. Women, low -income people and the Northeast electorate express increasing discontent. At the same time, sectors that made up the wide front – social, progressive and individual entrepreneurs – have been demonstrating dissatisfaction for months. The government seems enclosed, far from the reality of the country.
Historically, economic vote explained the popularity of the rulers. Social benefits and income growth used to translate into electoral support. But this logic is undoing. There is no more automatic political gratitude. Society has changed: the voter has become more critical and less faithful. Many voters have come to see social programs and government benefits as a basic right, not as a favor that requires retribution at the polls.
This phenomenon is even more evident among low -income evangelicals. The change in the values of society, driven by the growth of evangelicalism, has reduced the effectiveness of economic vote. The discourse of meritocracy and individual responsibility has gained strength, making the voter less likely to feel political gratitude for state benefits.
The “end of gratitude” has not yet manifested itself so intensely in the Northeast, although but in large cities and in the south and southeast this transformation has been going on for some time. And this is not an exclusive phenomenon of Brazil. Rulers around the world face similar difficulties in maintaining popular support throughout their term.
A and the corrosion of purchasing power also play an important role. Although unemployment is low and has been expanded, food prices and essential goods have raised fast. The voter realizes that his income does not follow this rise, generating frustration. The government did not completely understand this scenario. It is not enough to improve economic indicators; It is necessary to understand the change in people’s perception.
In addition, Brazil has not elected a clear political agenda since 2014. From 1994 to 2010, the presidents were elected with well -defined guidelines, such as the fight against inflation, the reduction of poverty and investments in. Since 2018, the elections have been marked by rejection of the incumbent. This creates heterogeneous and unstable electoral bases. The groups that joined to defeat an opponent end up fragmenting quickly after victory.
Lula faced this dilemma by setting up a government that tries to please sectors with contradictory demands. But social liberals, who want a smaller state, and class D and E workers, who require more state presence, conflict on the policies of. Left militants, advocates of labor market regulation, and individual entrepreneurs, who prefer fewer rules, also differ. This lack of cohesion wears the government’s relationship with its base and makes governability difficult. Over time, this turns into disapproval.
Another factor to consider is the rise of “post-material” themes in the public debate. Since 2018, cultural and identity issues have occupied the center of politics, replacing discussions about the role of the state in the economy. This intensifies polarization and makes it difficult to build consensus.
The challenge for the government is not only to improve economic indicators, but to rebuild a relationship of trust and credibility with the electorate. This requires recognizing ongoing structural change and adjusting your communication and political agenda for a new time.
