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The two countries have a long enmity history, but Trump may be turning the page and enter a new chapter. Hostility remains and China helps to tension.
In 2019, President Donald Trump recognized the then Venezuelan opposition leader, Juan Guaidó, as in the detriment of Nicolás Maduro, who has been governing the country since 2013.
The analyst Six years, for the present moment: In the early days of Trump’s second administration, the US president has negotiated with Maduro the release of detained Americans and an apparent will from Venezuela to receive hundreds of thousands of his citizens who are being deported from the USA .
It is possible to detect a subtle change in the Trump administration policy regarding Venezuela. It is true that the administration maintains a strong dose of the anti-maduro stance that last maintained, particularly in the light of electoral fraud widely denounced by Maduro in 2024 and an underlying antipathy current in Washington by leftist authoritarianism in Latin America.
Agreements and Immigration
So far, Trump’s second administration seems to be maintaining the line of not officially mature and prefer to leave the scene. He kept the sanctions against the country intact and continues to recognize the opponent of Maduro, Edmundo González, as the legitimate president -elect.
But that did not prevent administration from continuing negotiations. In late January, Trump’s envoy Richard Grenell visited Caracas to ensure the release of six Americans accused by Venezuela to conspire to destabilize the country. Trump later announced that Maduro would accept the repatriation of the deportations of Venezuelans in the US.
On February 10, two Venezuelan planes returned from the US with almost 200 deported Venezuelan citizens, a sign that negotiations between the two nations were more than just optics. But the news that the US Trump administration in Guantanamo Bay in Cuba – and is trying to send more – it can still be a thorn.
In any case, the change of position in relation to Venezuela raised suspicions between some Republicans and Democrats. His concern is that Grenell’s visit gives the mature regime a varnish of legitimacy.
But as long as Trump feels that Maduro’s Venezuela is useful for his deportation goals, the other US issues with the Caracas government will possibly continue to be of secondary importance.
Rhetoric vs. reality
The complicated dynamic of two men, ideologically opposite but aware of the utility of the other, is matched by Maduro. Venezuelan leader congratulated Trump for his electoral victory in November and seems to treat his most powerful opponent with some pragmatism.
Venezuela has been hard hit by the US that has been in effect since 2017. poverty level in the country is estimated in about 80% of the population. This dark economic framework is slowly improving, but is still harmed by poor oil production, despite having vast reserves.
On January 20, Trump suggested that he could interrupt Venezuelan oil exports to the US: “We do not need to buy their oil. We have a lot of oil for us, ”he said. Such a measure would be a hard blow to the Venezuela economy, which has benefited from increased exports to the US in recent years.
Competition with China
During his first administration, Trump failed his efforts to encourage Maduro’s replacement.
In any case, the Venezuelan government of Maduro, like Chavez before him, has shown to be able to resist US pressure.
The role that China has been taking on in the country and the growing proximity of Maduro to Beijing is another obstacle to US intentions to influence the future of Venezuela. Unlike western leaders, the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, felicitou Maduro after this one claimed the victory in 2024.
Ultimately, Trump’s path to relations with Venezuela will probably be conditioned by the factions they win in his administration and the political electoral circles that the president is most interested in pleasing.
