With the election of 2026 in view, President Lula (PT) would still have time to recover in research, but sees his base signaling a desire for renewal, evaluate political scientists heard by CNN.
Datafolha survey released on Friday (14) pointed out that the approval of the Lula government among Brazilians collapsed to 24%, the worst in the three terms of the petista.
Already another survey, pointed out the reasons for 32% of Brazilians who voted in Lula in 2022 evaluate that the petista should not seek a fourth presidential term.
For the PhD in Political Science from the State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ) Fábio Vasconcellos, the nearly two years that separate these surveys from February and still give birth to Lula reverse the negative scenario.
“We still have a government to be held in two years […] And you don’t know who the competitors will be in 2026-and the voter, throughout the election, makes a comparison (of the candidates), given the context, ”says Vasconcellos, also postdoctoral student of Democratic Representation and Legitimacy (Redem), project Research based at the Federal University of Paraná (UFPR).
New research
In the IPEC survey, the main arguments pointed out by the nearly 1/3 of Lula voters in 2022 who do not want to see him at the polls in 2026 were:
- Lula, 79, is old (31%);
- Lula is not doing a good job (27%);
- Lula has had his chance being president three times (16%);
- It is necessary to have renewal, with Lula giving space to new people (14%).
“Research (IPEC) suggests that there is a growing space for the presentation of new leaders, either within the PT or in allied parties,” says political scientist Jorge R. Mizael, managing partner of the metapolitical consultancy.
For Mizael, also PhD in Political Science at the University Institute of Lisbon (ISCTE), Lula cannot ignore the desire for renewal that has been emerging at the base and needs to define how it will behave in 2026.
“By postponing a clear decision, it can feed uncertainty within its coalition and make it difficult to build a viable alternative if I decide not to compete,” he adds.
Declaration
In the latest talks about 2026, Lula – Last year, the petista suffered a drop in the bathroom and as a result of the domestic accident.
“If I have 100% health and the energy I have today, [eu me candidato]even with a clean head; because I fell [com] A fall, hurt and did a treatment, cleaned my head and took everything silly that was in my head: it was only good now and positive thoughts, ”he told Radio Clube do Pará, on Friday, before the release of.
“If I’m cool and think I can be a candidate, I can be a candidate. But it’s not my priority now: I want to rule 2025, ”he added.
Succession
When arrested in 2018 and prevented from running for that year’s election, Lula indicated the then former mayor of Sao Paulo Fernando Haddad to launch himself to the PT presidency.
Today, Hadadd is evaluated by the political environment as a favorite to succeed Lula (whether in 2026 or 2030), but is the holder of the Ministry of Finance – and it is in the economic area that concentrates.
“It is no use launching a candidate who is an economy minister with the economy in crangans. This project would be completely bankrupt, ”says Vasconcellos, pondering that he still sees Haddad as a favorite for ruling succession.
Lula’s allies heard by CNN They argue that the petista and present measures regarding consumption and income – starting with a proposal, which the economic area expects to send to Congress after Carnival.
“Lula III is a mandate that has not yet left a mark and was born under the aegis of democratic risk – but this appeal no longer has the same strength,” said political scientist Rafael Cortez, professor at the Brazilian Institute for Development and Research (IDP).
With the public machine available to implement public policies, Mizael believes that the Lula government still has a “advantage factor” to reverse the scenario and do well at the polls in 2026.
“If there is a noticeable improvement in inflation, growth and employment indicators, it (Haddad) can recover strength as a successor. Otherwise, new names tend to gain space, ”says Jorge Mizael.
“Time still plays in your favor, but the margin is narrow,” he adds.
Comparison
Then President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in Datafolha polls in September and December 2021, – an indicator worse than Lula’s current, and even closer to the election.
However, Bolsonaro saw his popularity grow by 2022 amid, reaching 31% approval on the eve of the first round.
Even defeated by Lula in the second round, it was by minimum margin: 51% to 49%.
“The government itself – and Haddad – will react to these indicators,” says Vasconcellos, referring to both the economy and research numbers.
“How much will this reaction generate positive results? This is the interrogation, ”he concludes.
* With information from Juliana Lopes, from CNN, in São Paulo
