“The situation is extremely fragile,” says Aiman Muhana, executive director of the “Foundation for Freedom of Samir Kassir” based in Beirut.
“We have to take very seriously a US president, who requires release of all hostages and displacement of the Palestinians from the lane. He has proven that he can and is forced to. “
Aiman Muhana, Executive Director of the “Foundation for Freedom of Expression Samir Kassir”
To what extent will the Trump plan be achieved to displace the population of Gaza in Egypt and Jordan?
“The fact that the president of one of the most powerful democracies is having fun with the idea of violently moving the entire population of an area is a horror. At the same time, it shows the magnitude of Donald Trump’s contempt for values related to democracy, human rights and the rule of law. Whether he literally means what he said, or he uses it as a tactic to force Jordan and Egypt to more concessions, or mentioned it to provoke Iran’s reaction, which would justify a military escalation, long -term damage has been done. He opened the door to any authoritarian leader in the world to threaten and commit similar actions to the detriment of vulnerable populations, knowing that he will go unpunished if the US president himself shares and promoted similar inhumane positions. Of course, Egypt and Jordan reject the displacement plan, but the US is exerting significant pressure force in Cairo and Aman. “
That is, could the US president force Egypt and Jordan to accept the plan?
“He could do so by presenting his movement as a humanitarian gesture, with a temporary character as pending the rebuilding of Gaza. However, we cannot rule out the possibility of Trump’s advisers to warn him of the internal destabilizing consequences of such a move for the governments of Egypt and Jordan. This can push him to finally think about the whole project. “
What changes can Trump impose widely in the Middle East?
“The US president is unpredictable. But there are scenarios to consider. Will it give an absolute priority to Israel’s support, without any symbolic concession to the Palestinians? This scenario is particularly likely, but it will reduce Trump’s ability to persuade Saudi Arabia to normalize its relationship with Israel. Will the Saudi and the wider Arab relations with Israel be a priority? Then, again he will have to accept some concessions in favor of the Palestinians. Will it prioritize the defeat of the Iranian regime through political or military pressure? This cannot be done without the commitment of many partners to maintain stability throughout the Middle East to fill the void left by the Iranians. This would also mean that he must restore his relations with his traditional allies, who have been determined by his tariff war. What will not change is the priority that Trump gives to the authoritarian leaders of the world to maintain stability over the processes of democratization that could pose risks. “
Is the “front” from Gaza transferred to the West Bank?
“This is an important danger and the natural consequence of the long -term Israeli occupation and humiliation imposed on the West Bank, as well as the obvious impotence and irregularity, will add to the Palestinian Authority. If the war escalates on the West Bank, it will lead to further collapse of any prospects for the creation of a Palestinian state and increase pressure on Jordan. “
A new government was recently formed in Lebanon, with the influence of Hebollah. Among other things, he lost a veto to decision -making. What does that mean?
“Hezbollah is in a difficult position. Its military capacity has been significantly reduced, its funding flows have been compressed and its credibility has been shaken. The only way is to try to compensate internally, within the Lebanese institutions, what it has lost on a geostrategic level – which becomes more difficult, as its local opponents have been strengthened. It has been the first time for decades that the new president and the new prime minister have been elected without the support of Hezbollah. If Hezbollah manages to maintain or recover some financial resources, he will continue to try to defend her inner influence. But if it is financially pressured, then we could expect deeper changes. “
What orientation does the new Lebanese government?
“In the right direction. The new Prime Minister, Nawaf Salam, sends the signal of a prepared leader who avoids populism. Most ministers are very respected but at the same time, the government includes ministers close to Hezbollah – they control the Ministries of Finance and Health. However, the most important is not the composition of the Council of Ministers but the way the new government will address critical issues, such as the ceasefire with Israel, the treatment of Hezbollah weapons, and the rebuilding of damage caused by The war that will not happen without international assistance, which depends on the reduction of Hezbollah’s influence. There are two more necessary issues on the new government’s agenda: creating healthy relations with the new Syrian administration, including management of the issue of Syrian refugees, as well as appointing reliable people in vacancies at the steering wheel The Lebanese army. “
