Scoring would be 45.1% to 40.2%; Michele Bolsonaro and Tarcísio de Freitas would draw a direct confrontation against the petista
Paraná’s new survey points out that if they were eligible, the former president (PL) would win from the current president (PT), in 2nd round, if the elections were today. In a scenario only with the 2 candidates, Bolsonaro had 45.1% of voting intentions in the survey, while Lula appears 40.2%.
Against, Lula appears tied by the margin of error. The former first lady accumulates 42.9% of voting intentions, against 40.5% of the current president.
Against (Republicans), there is also a draw on the margin of error. The petista appears with 41.1% of the votes while the governor of São Paulo accumulates 40.8%.
The survey interviewed 2010 people between February 13 and 16, 2025 in 162 municipalities distributed in all regions of the country. The research margin of the survey is 2.2 percentage points, with 95% of confidence degree. Here’s (PDF – 817kb).
1st shift
Already in the scenario stimulated with several candidates, Jair Bolsonaro would receive 36% of voting intentions, while Lula would have 33.8%. (PDT) appears in the survey with 7.7%, followed by Gusttavo Lima (without party), with 5.1%. Already (union) and (PSDB) accumulate 2.7% each. (MDB) scored 1.1%.
In a scenario without Bolsonaro, Lula accumulates 34.1% against 27.2% of Michele Bolsonaro and 9% of Ciro Gomes. Already Gusttavo Lima appears with 8.7%of voting intentions, followed by Ronaldo Caiado, with 4.7%, and Eduardo Leite, with 3.1%. Helder Barbalho accumulates 1.3%.
Without Bolsonaro, nor Michelle, Lula stays ahead with 34.1%. The governor of São Paulo appears with 21.9%, followed by Gusttavo Lima, with 11%. Ciro Gomes accumulates 10%of voting intentions, followed by Ronaldo Caiado, with 4.1%, Eduardo Leite, with 2.8%, and Helder Barbalho, with 1.3%.
In a 4th scenario, the petista appears with 33.8% of voting intentions against 15% of Mouse Junior, 13% of Gusttavo Lima and 9.8% of Ciro Gomes. Ronaldo Caiado accumulates 6.5% of the votes and Eduardo Leite 3.6%. Helder Barbalho appears with 1.4%.
Already in a dispute with Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, in place of Lula, Tarcísio de Freitas appears ahead with 23.9% against 18.9% of Haddad and 16.7% of Ciro Gomes. Singer Gusttavo Lima accumulates 12.4% in this scenario, against Ronald Caiado, with 4.2% of voting intentions, following Eduardo Leite, with 3.8% and Helder Barbalho, with 1.3%.
In a scenario with Michelle competing with Haddad, former first lady accumulates 30.2% against 18.8% of the minister, who is followed by Ciro Gomes with 15.4% of voting intentions. Gusttavo Lima appears with 9.5% while Ronaldo Caiado accumulates 4.6%, followed by Eduardo Leite, with 4.2% and Helder Barbalho, with 1.3%.
