“We arrived with 1%.”
This is the chance that Spaniard Pep Guardiola, coach of Manchester City, evaluates that his team is against Real Madrid in the return game at the Santiago Bernabéu stadium, for Champions League playoffs.
Without getting the direct classification for the round of 16 of the European Champions League after stumbles in the single group phase, the current Spanish champion and the current four-time English champion were paired, via draw, in a knockout to try to get there.
It is the most interest duel of the eight of this stage, as the real is the biggest winner of Champions (15 times, including 2024) and Man City, with Guardiola, won the competition for the first time in 2023.
That year, the unprecedented title, obtained against Inter Milan in the final, Man City eliminated Real in the semifinal, with a 4-0 defeat in Manchester after a 1-1 draw in Madrid.
The difference now is that those who decide at home, this Wednesday (19), are the commanders of Italian Carlo Ancelotti. This after Man City took a turn in the first leg, conceding two goals at the end and succumbing 3-2.
Does the moral factor contribute to the real to have favoritism?
Certainly, although over the weekend, who presented a convincing football was Man City, who thrashed the good Newcastle team in English, while Vini Jr., Mbappé and company only tied with the mediocre Osasuna ( 1 to 1), which resulted in the loss of leadership in Spanish.
And, let’s face it, give 1% chance to a team that has gabaritated athletes (Haaland, from Bruyne, Foden, Bernardo Silva, Savinho, Gvardiol, Ederson) is either a discourse too defeatist or a smart strategy to play all the responsibility of classification to the opponent.
The recent story, ten years ago, shows that the real, even being very strong in his domains, embittered two Championship eliminations playing at the Santiago Bernabéu.
The first one happened in 2015. With a team that had Buffon, Tevez, Pirlo and Bonucci, Juventus beat Turin 2-1 and resisted in Madrid to the real of Cristiano Ronaldo, drawing a 1-1 and advancing to the final, in which Lost from Barcelona de Messi and Neymar.
In 2019, in the round of 16, after leaving Amsterdam with a 2-1 over Ajax, Real, with Vini Jr., Benzema, Kroos and Modric, relaxed on the way back and took a sound 4-1 of the Dutch, led by the Serbian Tadic.
Considering this period, Real decided on Matades in Madrid 17 times. He was classified in 15 of them, was eliminated in two. A stupendous performance, but not 99% successful – is 88%.
Considering this history, Man City has a 12% chance of surviving in the Santiago Bernabéu, not the derisory 1% exposed by Guardiola.
There are other Gerives for the English visitor. In this Champions, Real has already lost as principal, 3-1 to Milan, who is far from portentous offensively. And, for the Spaniard, this season, Barcelona applied a 4-0 on the merengues in the Spanish capital.
The Man City just win by a goal of a difference to provoke an extension.
Difficult is, but it is also totally exaggerated to classify the challenge as a tragic situation, with the speech “we arrive with 1%” when it is perfectly circumventable.
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