Donald Trump continues to work on his ambitious peace plan for Ukraine, despite criticism and discontent generated in Europe and kyiv. After a series of conversations with Vladimir Putin and Volodimir Zelenski, the US president has taken the step of Start direct negotiations between the United States and Russia.
On Tuesday, capital of Saudi Arabia, to discuss the Conflict resolution perspectives. However, the Exclusion of Ukraine and Europe from these conversations It has caused a growing discomfort.
Trump’s plan has generated a strong reaction among his detractors, especially by the statements of Pete HegsethSecretary of Defense of the United States, who He ruled out the possibility that Ukraine restores his sovereign borders and expressed his willingness to exclude NATO Ukraine. For many, these statements represent a dangerous concession to Putin. John Bolton, former Trump National Security Advisor, compared these measures with a surrender to Kremlin.
However, there are those who see the meeting positively when considering that it is the right time. “The amazing losses of Russia on the battlefield and its hesitant war economy create a window of opportunity for effective negotiations” Samuel mapAssociate Researcher at Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) of London and General Director of Pangea Geopolitical Risk.
According to the expert, the fall of the Russian economy and the difficulties in the energy sector can force Putin to consider a resolution, especially if the economic pressure of the United States intensifies: “If Trump weakens the Russian economy even more intensifying the production of American shale gas and making energy prices fall, Putin may not have another option to solve a war that considers existential“.
The Russian economy, in a critical condition
The current economic situation of Russia is alarming. Last week, raising them from 4.5-5%to 7-8%, while current inflation is around 9.9%.
This has caused a vertiginous increase in the prices of consumer goods, especially in large cities, seriously affecting the population. The crisis of the cost of living threatens to destroy the quality of life of millions of Russians, especially those who earn less than $ 415 per month.
Besides, The constant recruitment for war has created a Labor scarcity in key sectors of the Russian economywhich further aggravates the internal crisis. In November, the Kremlin acknowledged that he needs 2.4 million additional workers in sectors such as manufacturing, transport and health by 2030. “The perpetual war in Ukraine makes Russia cover those deficiencies in its workforce and could trigger a prolonged economic crisis,” says the researcher.
The Russian energy sector also faces difficulties: “Due to the fall of European sales and attacks with unmanned aerial vehicles from Ukraine to the infrastructure of pipelines, Gazprom recorded a loss of 6,900 million dollars in 2023“. This represents its pRimera annual loss from the ruble crisis in 1999.
The growing schist gas production in the United States and the Measures against the illicit oil export of Russia They are also affecting the ability of Putin’s war machinery.
Despite these challenges, the Russian president “He still believes that he can survive the shortage of labor in Ukraine and the hesitant Western support”. However, the expert believes that “The Russian war economy is a bubble about to explode”. “Putin does not want to run the risk of suffering the socioeconomic consequences that this would entail and could make unacceptable concessions in Ukraine to avoid it,” he concludes.
