One Investment strategy “safe”prioritizing assets of fixed incomethat guarantee predictability in future payments, it would have avoided the billionaire rhombo in the social security of Banco do Brasil employees (Previ), according to experts consulted by CNN.
after a break of $ 14 billion in plan 1 between January and November 2024.
The request came from Minister Walton Alencar Rodrigues ,.
The result is in the opposite direction of Previ’s recent history: in 2022, the result accumulated in the year was a surplus of R $ 5.2 billion; and in 2023, of R $ 9.8 billion.
The 2024 deficit, with managed management led by the, only compares to the result of the fund at Pico da Pandemia.
In 2021 there was a deficit of R $ 14.85 billion-but at a time when the COVID-19 crisis impacted global supply chains and generated volatility, affecting both fixed and variable income investments, PREVI explained in an annual balance itself .
According to Luigi Micales, Black Swan manager, the “greatest disagreement” in the fund’s investment choices is.
Of the total of 102,000 Previ beneficiaries, 3% are active, which would mean that the fund is in the phase of benefit payment and no longer accumulation
“This implies that there should be a more conservative allocation, prioritizing fixed income assets that guarantee the predictability of future payments. With annual redemptions of approximately 8%, Previ could prioritize a higher fixed income allocation, ”he said.
“In a scenario where government bonds pay IPCA + 7.5% per year, the fund could guarantee a more suitable cash flow to its payment structure, bringing greater predictability and financial security to its beneficiaries,” he added.
From January to November – PREVI Plan 1, PREVI concentrated 27.88% of its assets in variable income.
These investments recorded 9.04% loss and led losses in the year. Even in 2021, during COVID-19, the deficit in this class was less expressive (1.79%). In 2022 and 2023 the profit exceeded 16%.
Fixed income gains were below the percentages recorded in recent years, even in a high interest scenario: 7.79%. In 2021, the profit with this asset class was 10.49%; in 2022, 12.43%; and in 2023, 11.21%.
This same perception of the wrong distribution of assets is shared by Cássio Landes, Head of Social Security and Security of Valor Investments.
The expert indicates that “the decrease in the variable income portion could have mitigated part of Previ’s negative result”.
Lucas Sharau, economist at IHUB Investimentos, says that to minimize risks, a conservative strategy should be applied with post-fixed actives such as the Selic Treasury.
“If there was more cautious management, considering the economic scenario, Previ could have reduced the impact of market volatility and minimized the deficit,” he said.
Impacts for BB retirees
Experts consulted by CNN They cite “various reasons” that justify the health analysis of the large supplementary pension plans, from the impact on the pockets of Brazilians to the public accounts, and a.
“These funds have a social obligation. They deal with beneficiaries who, all their lives, have accumulated resources to retire. When such a negative result occurs, it is A, ”says Cássio Landes.
The concern is that the beneficiaries will be impacted in the future, as social security is the “only or main source of income they have,” adds Landes.
At PREVI, to form a background that theoretically must multiply to pay the benefits of retirees and future retirees.
“Losses and losses can happen and, when confirmed, the context of the decisions that led to these results should be analyzed and justified. A good parameter is the comparison of pension fund performance with the behavior of other market pension funds, ”says Gilberto Braga, IBMEC-RJ economy professor.
Jorge Boucinhas, professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation School of Business Administration (FGV/EAESP) cites the possibility of “misappropriation of public resources”.
Even though it is a closed supplementary pension entity, with money from BB employees, as the Union can be triggered to supply the resources.
“A fund like this has a negative result, if there is deficit for any reason, it will be possibly necessary new resources for the public entity,” explains André Gilberto, CEO and responsible for the area of Administrative Law of CGM Advogados.
“When we look at a Caixa Econômica, a Banco do Brasil, we are talking about a potential bleeding in resources from public companies or very important mixed economy societies,” he adds.
