The probability that the asteroid shock against the earth has risen to 3.1%, according to NASA. According to the calculation of the American space agency, the possibilities that this body hit our planet on December 22, 2032 already exceed 3% that was calculated in 2004 for the asteroid Apofis, although finally its risk fell to zero. The European Space Agency has also re -evaluated its calculations by 2024 YR4 to. At the beginning of February the risk was 1.2%, but new observations of astronomers have allowed to improve the calculation after a week blinded by the full moon.
The one that this numerical value is expected to evolve in future dates “first increasing and then decreasing, if this asteroid follows the pattern of similar past discoveries.” All space and telescope agencies pursue with their eyes to the asteroid, which leads the list of bodies that raise some risk. The data will be updated with the observations of their position, for example, when the James Webb space telescope points towards the space rock within a few weeks.
The asteroid has “an estimated diameter between 40 and 90 meters” so it is not an existential threat to humanity. But I could destroy a city if it came to fall on a populated area. Much of its impact depends on still unknown factors, such as its composition and the angle of entry into the earth’s atmosphere. The first calculations indicate a risk corridor that indicate that the meteorite could fall into a line that goes from Venezuela to indicates, crossing the Atlantic and Africa at the height of the Gulf of Guinea.
The 2024 YR4 remains a level 3 body on the Turin scale, which measures the threat presented by the asteroids from 0 to 10. The European agency remembers the case of Apofis, a 375 -meter space rock that in 2004 reached the level 4 because it could cause “devastation at the regional level” and the YR4 only at the local level. Its impact probability then reached 3%, the highest ever recorded for a significant size asteroid. However, after the analysis of file data prior to 2004, he clarified that there was no impact possibility.
Two specialized groups of the United Nations are studying the trajectory of this body: the international asteroid alert network, and the Space Missions Advisory Group (SMPAG). These two organizations were created to coordinate the international response to such a threat. The SMPAG coordinates the technical knowledge of the main spatial agencies, including the United States and the, chaired by this group. Its function is to recommend a specific response to dangerous asteroids, including its study and the proposal of mitigation or diversion measures, if necessary.
It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 disappears from the view before any possibility of impact in 2032 can be completely discard In 2028, the agency explained in a.
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