The suspicion about the Pension Funds Management This is not an isolated episode in Brazilian history, experts consulted by CNN.
Repeats “movies” from the past and features features that go back to the episode 10 years ago, indicate.
after the release of the break of R $ 14 billion between January and November 2024 in the call 1 of PREVI, led by the unionist João Fukunaga.
which expressed “very serious concerns” with the result of the fund.
“Pension funds, specifically those linked to state -owned companies, have always been at the suspicion and loss epicenter resulting from mismanagement, with often undue or doubtful investments,” says Gilberto Braga, IBMEC MBA Finance professor.
Experts highlight episode a decade ago: between 2015 and 2016 a Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (CPI) investigated suspicions in the management of the funds of the FEDERAL ECONOMIC BOX (FUNCEF)of the Post (Postalis)as well Petrobras (Petro) and Previ.
Evidence of fraud and mismanagement was investigated between 2003 and 2015.
The report approved by the CPI calculated loss of R $ 6 billion in the four entities and requested clarification about 353 suspicions of crimes and administrative infractions, in addition to 146 indictments.
For experts, it is not yet possible to dig similarities and differences in the “whys” between the current and past case. They indicate that the TCU audit on the pension fund is necessary for this exact reason.
“Therefore, the audit is a measure of transparency of management and good corporate governance practice. If the negative results are provisional, they commit the sustainability of social security plans, only an independent specialized analysis can say competently and without political bias, ”argues Braga.
PREVI allocation
According to Renan Silva, professor of economics at IBMEC, in a given aspect the nature of the loss of the past is different from that verified in Previ between January and November 2024 – which focuses on investments in variable incomein companies of stock exchange.
“In the past the losses were with illiquid assets not listed on the stock exchange, classified as private equity, pre-operational companies or even startups. In any case, an independent audit is necessary to complete the origin of the losses, ”says Silva.
The analysis is in line with the perception of Luigi Micales, Black Swan manager.
“Postalis, for example, accumulated a break of $ 5.6 billion in 2014, which was the result of investments that included titles from Venezuela and Argentina,” he says.
Lawyer Emanuel Pessoa points out that, even during the preliminary analysis, past cases of corruption and political interference In state pension funds generate fear of high losses.
“Understanding the causes and effects of a negative outcome of a pension fund is indispensable to assess whether it is able to afford its future commitments. In particular, it is necessary to know if the losses are conjunctural or structural, if the latter that would be more worrying, ”says Pessoa.
Erroneous strategy
A “safe” investment strategy, prioritizing fixed income assets, which guarantee predictability in future payments, according to experts consulted by CNN.
The result is in the opposite direction of Previ’s recent history: in 2022, the result accumulated in the year was a surplus of R $ 5.2 billion; and in 2023, of R $ 9.8 billion.
O 2024 deficitwith management captained by the unionist João Fukunaga, only compares to the result of the fund at Pico da pandemia.
By 2021 there was a deficit of R $ 14.85 billion – but at a time when the crisis of the COVID-19 Impacted global supply chains and generated volatility, affecting both fixed and variable income investments, PREVI explained in an annual balance.
According to Luigi Micales, o. Of the total of 102,000 Previ beneficiaries, 3% are active, which would mean that the fund is in the phase of benefit payment and no longer accumulation.
“This implies that there should be a more conservative allocation, prioritizing fixed income assets that guarantee the predictability of future payments. With annual redemptions of approximately 8%, Previ could prioritize a higher fixed income allocation, ”he said.
“In a scenario where government bonds pay IPCA + 7.5% per year, the fund could guarantee a more suitable cash flow to its payment structure, bringing greater predictability and financial security to its beneficiaries,” he added.
From January to November – PREVI Plan 1 period concentrated 27.88% of its assets in variable income.
These investments recorded 9.04% loss and led losses in the year. Even in 2021, during COVID-19, the deficit in this class was less expressive (1.79%). In 2022 and 2023 the profit exceeded 16%.
Fixed income gains were below the percentages recorded in recent years, even in a high interest scenario: 7.79%. In 2021, the profit with this asset class was 10.49%; in 2022, 12.43%; and in 2023, 11.21%.
This same perception of the wrong distribution of assets is shared by Cássio Landes, Head of Social Security and Security of Valor Investments. The expert indicates that “the decrease in the variable income portion could have mitigated part of Previ’s negative result”.
