Estimate was released by the director of monetary policy, Nilton David; The period coincides with presidential elections
The director of monetary policy of (Central Bank), Nilton David, said on Friday (21.FEV.2025) that inflation should be within the target interval (from 1.5% to 4.5%) in the 3rd quarter 2026, which coincides with the election period.
“[A inflação] will be 4% [no 3º trimestre de 2026]which is within the interval, but above the center [da meta, de 3%]. The big challenge is to see this inflation inflation, which is not expected to happen in the coming months ”these.
The BC director also expects a slowdown in economic activity before inflation yields. “The expected activity is that the activity [econômica] Cool. This is our expected ”said Nilton. To start analyzing a monetary flexibility process (interest cut), the director said the BC needs a “Very relevant amount of data pointing to the same side”.
Nilton declared this is the form of the BC to evaluate what is noise and what is a tendency not to anticipate hastily. Stated that economic activity data will be only one of the “channels”Transmission of monetary policy. “It will not be the activity that will make us decrease the interest level. It will be the perception and perception and conviction that is affecting the level of inflation ”he declared.
The director said the coming months will be challenging with inflation. It evaluates that it tends to get worse before improving, even with high interest rates. “We have a good conviction that we were considerate [na política monetária] Before, in the last rise, and that we are more contractionist now ”he declared.
The director participated in Live do, in São Paulo. Nilton took office in January this year. He replaced Gabriel Galipolo, who became president of the monetary authority.
Nilton was questioned by Bradesco’s chief economist, Fernando Honorato, about the effectiveness of the basic rate, Selic, to control inflation. “The Central Bank has full conviction that there is power in monetary policy”Said the director.
For him, there is no reason to believe that “it changed a lot”In recent years. “We even believe that the power of monetary policy in Brazil is not the same that it has in developed countries, but it is a decades, it is not a thing now”Said Nilton.
The director stated that there was a “surprise”On top of economic activity at a time of monetary tightening. The Central Bank rose the basic rate to. It signaled that it will raise to. The base interest is there and, according to the projections of the financial agents, will reach the level of 15% this year, the.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) has grown more than 3% in the last 3 years (2022, 2023 and 2024).
Monetary policy
Selic High serves to control the rate of the National Consumer Price Index (National Index of Consumer Price), which is in. Brazil’s inflation is above the 3% target and beyond the allowed ceiling (4.5%). The Central Bank said it is due to the inflation target in June.
President Lula said on Wednesday (12.FEV.2025) that Galipoi goes “” but needs time. Earlier, he was from former Central Bank president Roberto Campos Neto.
Trump rates
Bradesco’s chief economist, Fernando Honorato, said financial market agents were concerned about increasing import tariffs in the United States.
“The market had a certain consensual perception that the [Donald] Protectionist Trump, by raising import rates, ends up producing inefficiency in the economy, more prices and perhaps a tighter monetary policy in the United States, which is bad for emerging assets prices. ”said the economist.
The director said that the level of uncertainty of what is expected of a US policy is “Much bigger than we had in previous moments”. For Nilton, there are still doubts about what “It will happen”.
About asset prices, the director of monetary policy evaluates that financial agents did not preceive “Everything that is possible on the one hand or on the other”but “Halfway”.
According to Nilton, the financial assets of Mexico and Brazil had ways “Very similar”. And added: “The Trump effect was even more pronounced in Mexico than in Brazil”. The director stated that uncertainty means increased risk, as well as currencies “Suffering”.
EXCHANGE
Nilton argued that Brazil cannot only observe the value of the dollar to evaluate the performance of the real. This is because the US currency is at historically high level, which also has implications for other global currency.
“[A moedas] All are pointing one side: we are historically in a strong dollar against the rest of the plan ”these.
The director said the dollar is floating. He stated that international reserves are used for moments of dysfunctionalities in the currency market. “No one has any pretense of having an artificial exchange price, even if it is momentary ”these.
