Soviet turf of Trump shakes decades of diplomacy. China trembled, but already has a new plan: support Ukraine and ally with Europe

The US President has dismissed Ukraine, left Europe hanging and seems to be hammering in his hand, just missing the scythe. Beijing alerted this unexpected maneuver, but quickly noticed in the window of opportunity that Donald Trump left wide: the alliance with the European Union and Kiev

United States President Donald Trump’s effort to end the war in Ukraine perspective that are made to Russia, leaving Kiev and European supporters on the fringes of the eventual feat for his default.

But these are not the only important actors to face the consequences of Trump’s movements to Russia, which overthrew years of US foreign policy in a explosion of rapid diplomacy.

Also in Beijing, the dizzying turnaround of events is raising questions about the impact that the US peace initiative will have in the partnership carefully forged between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin – and in the precarious relations of China with the administration Trump.

Just a few weeks ago, China seemed to play a key role in Trump’s peace efforts in Ukraine. The US leader who could work with Xi, using China’s economic influence on Russia to help end conflict – an important lever to Beijing, which he wants with the world’s largest economy.

This would be in line with those of Beijing to present itself as a neutral part and a global southern voice that is ready to mediate peace in conflict – even when NATO accused it of providing double use goods to the Moscow Defense Industry. China defends itself by claiming that it is its “normal trade.”

Now, Beijing is not involved in the negotiations as Russian ally or as a voice of global gravity – so far, at least, left out of the rapid developments that, according to the observers, surprised the Chinese – and forced them to strive for finding a positive side.

A “nixon on the contrary”?

The risks are high for Xi, who for years has assiduously cultivated both a personal bond with his and his country’s relations with Russia – seeing the northern neighbor as a fundamental partner in a wider power struggle with the West.

The Chinese leader took a calculated risk when the Russian tanks crossed the Ukrainian border three years ago. Beijing’s option not to condemn this invasion and to make the country serving as Putin’s salvation board – absorbing Russian oil and providing essential goods to Moscow – caused China to lose the confidence of Europe and galvanized the American allies in Asia to work closely with the born.

In recent days, Chinese responsible has expressed their approval of the “agreement” between the US and Russia to start peace talks.

“China supports all efforts that lead to peace conversations,” said Diplomat Wang Yi at a United Nations Security Council meeting, the same day they gathered them in Saudi Arabia to launch the foundations of the end negotiations of combat in Ukraine.

But the comments of American officials in recent days should have caught Beijing’s attention to the potential underlying US goals in their work with Russia.

Marco Rubio, a US-top diplomat, mentioned the possibility of future “geopolitical and economic cooperation” between Washington and Moscow as one of the four key points discussed in Riyadh.

Days earlier, the Trump administration envoy to Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, said in a discussion panel in Munich that the US expected to “force” Putin to take action with which he was not “comfortable”, which could include disturbing Russia’s alliances with Iran, North Korea and China.

Observers are skeptical about the possibility of Washington shaking the relationship between Russia and China, given their deep alignment against the US led order and Moscow’s rooted economic dependence on Beijing.

But any concerns that may be emerging in China about if Trump – a leader who has repeatedly professed his admiration for both Putin and Xi – could undo his ties are probably underlined by the echoes of past distrust.

The bitter territorial disputes along their extensive shared border gave rise to a conflict between Soviet Russia and the young popular republic of China in 1969 and were only widely resolved in the 1990s.

Then there is the diplomatic coup engendered by President Richard Nixon and counselor Henry Kissinger, who explored a split between the communist neighbors to establish relations with Beijing and to oscillate the balance of the power of the Cold War in favor of the US.

Although the story is unlikely to be unlikely, observers say that even a clue of a new change of loyalty is an advantage for Washington’s goals.

“Even if it’s just 30% of an ‘inverted nixon’ … this will sow the question,” Explaayun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center reflection center in Washington.

“This will make Xi Jinping question the strategic alignment that (has passed) the last 12 years to build with Russia – ‘may not be that reliable, perhaps not that solid’.”

If China one day decides to invade Taiwan, “the Chinese will have to look back and ask themselves-what will Russia do?” He added, referring to the Autonomous Democratic Island that Beijing claims. “And for the United States, this is dissuasion.”

A place at the table?

But there are those who say Beijing can have more confidence in their ties with Moscow.

“Relations between China and Russia are in their own alloy, have a solid foundation and strong institutional connections in recent decades,” says Yu Bin, senior member of the Russian Studies Center at the Oriental Normal University in Shanghai.

Yu Bin, senior member of the Russian Study Center at the Normal University of East of China, in Shanghai, mentioned the efforts of both countries to promote multilateralism and create their own international organizations, such as the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as well as the need to maintain the stability of its borders. “I don’t think either side leaves it aside because Trump will be there for four years,” he says.

Instead, China is worried “that since Russia and the US resolve its differences and reach some degree of peace in Ukraine, it would release the Trump government to return its focus to China,” said Yu.

US Secretary Pete Hegseth gave signs of this last week when he told his European counterparts that the US cannot focus mainly on the safety of its continent when they have to give priority to “prevent war with China” .

If Trump had not been able to involve Putin directly, Beijing could have tried to ease some friction with the US, working with Washington to bring the Russian leader to the negotiating table – but now it is not clear if China will have any role in future peace negotiations in Ukraine.

However, observers say that if there is an agreement, Beijing can send peace maintenance forces to Ukraine through the United Nations and will be interested in playing a role in the country’s reconstruction.

For now, Chinese authorities have used a wave of diplomacy in recent days to try to regain lost love with Europe – appealing in public statements to “all relevant and intervening parts in the Ukraine crisis” to “get involved in the conversation process of peace ”, in a nod to the right of Europe to a place at the table.

At the same time, they also sought to highlight their potential to play a role, implying that Trump’s apparent turn to Putin proves that Beijing’s position was correct from the beginning.

However, Ukraine has hypothesized to try to recruit China as its ally.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has received little since the beginning of the war, suggested it even after a meeting on Saturday between the main Chinese diplomat Wang and Ukrainian employees in Germany.

“It’s important for us to involve China to help press Putin to end the war. We are seeing, I think, for the first time, the interest of China, ”Zelensky said at a press conference on Tuesday. “This is mainly due to the fact that all processes are now accelerating.”

As for those who should be at the negotiation table, the Ukrainian leader added that they should be the “ready to assume responsibility to ensure security, assist, load Putin and invest in Ukraine’s recovery.”