In recent days, the price of egg began to make the Brazilian more worried. With successive increases in meat values, the input has become an alternative for many homes. Parallel to this, the period of forty days before Easter also raised the values in the gondolas of the supermarket.
In recent days, a box with 30 eggs could be found for $ 40 in some states, according to the Brazilian Association of Supermarkets (Abras). According to the institution, the input in the basic basket advanced 0.78% in January.
By the historical line of the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) of ESALQ/USP, in Santa Maria de Jetibá (ES), one of the main egg production centers in the country, on January 20, 2025 the white eggs had a Right real (discounted inflation in the period) of 34.13%, while red or rustic, the increase was 42.8% over the same day last year.
According to IBGE, bird and egg price inflation rose 1.69% in January, show broad consumer price index numbers (IPCA). In the accumulated 12 months, the increase was 7.84%.
The question that arises is: When will the egg be cheaper?
Experts point out that egg prices are driven by a combination of structural and conjunctural factors that affect both demand and supply.
Since mid -2024, the appreciation of meat, especially bovine, has generated a ripple effect on other sources of protein, including eggs. The rise in meat prices was motivated by increasing internal demand, driven by the growth of Brazil’s GDP and income, as well as the devaluation of the real, which made agricultural products more competitive in the foreign market.
With a scenario of heated exports, driven by the United States, the supply of meat in the domestic market has decreased, pressing prices and leading consumers to look for more affordable alternatives such as eggs and other proteins.
In recent months, in addition to the impact of high demand, climatic and sanitary factors have restricted supply, aggravating the inflationary condition.
Egg producers point out that intense heat has reduced farm productivity in Brazil, affecting egg production and increasing costs for producers.
At the same time, an outbreak of avian flu in the United States resulted in the slaughter of more than 40 million birds between the end of 2024 and January 2025, reducing global offer and further pressing prices.
With fewer eggs on the market and high demand, prices have fired, creating a scenario of strong increase for consumers.
According to Noma’s director of investments, Beto Saadia, the impact of these oscillations should remain in the short term, as the recovery of production depends on the normalization of weather conditions in Brazil and the control of aviary flu in the international market.
In addition, it does not foresee a return on prices to old values.
“It is not so expected that prices lower very sharply. Whenever you have a very acute high this way, it is very difficult for prices to return to your original status. They will always find something alongside a price that will end there at a higher level than it was last year, no doubt, but we expect an accommodation that is around six months, ”he said.
For economist Sergio Vale, prices must still take time to adjust.
“Meat prices only now begin to slow down and it has helped the price of eggs to rise along with the seasonality of Easter. Tends to improve from April. It is also important that avian flu remains away. She has done prices rise in the US, but for now she is under control, ”he said.
For the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein (ABPA), prices are expected to continue pressed in the coming months and return to the standard after the end of Easter – which this year is expected to take place on April 17, – according to a statement from the institution published this week .
“After a long period with low prices, egg marketing warmed by the natural demand of the time, when there is replacement of red meat consumption with white and egg proteins,” explained ABPA.
Even President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) finds a “absurd” the box with 30 eggs cost $ 40 in some cities. The boss said he wants to call entrepreneurs to discuss what can be done.
“This is a discussion. Similarly soy oil, like meat. The flesh began to fall. It will fall, it can be sure it will fall and the people will eat their picanha, their ribs or another piece of meat that he wants. When you have moments like this we are living, you can not control overnight. But you can be sure that we will bring the price down, ”Lula said in an interview with Radio Tupi of Rio de Janeiro, this Thursday (20).
