Tomorrow at 09:00 (Greek time) the ballots in the 29 parties claiming the vote of 59.2 million citizens.
They are held almost six months before the completion of the parliamentary period, as the government coalition collapsed on November 6, 2024, which consisted of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Greens and Free Democrats (FDPs).
Economy and migration in the foreground
The rejuvenation of the economy was one of the two major issues of the parties’ campaign, the other was immigration and security, which were put to the forefront of a series of deadly attacks since May 2024.
The cities of Mannheim, Zollingen, Magdeburg, Ashafenburg and Munich have been affected by serious attacks. A Spanish tourist was stabbed at the Holocaust Monument in downtown Berlin on Friday night, although his wounds are not considered threatening to his life.
Allaf Saltz has restored border controls with neighboring European countries in recent months – a move that many have interpreted as an attempt to gain the favor of voters who may be turning to.
However, as polls show that it can become the second largest political force in the country.
As far as the economy is concerned, in Germany there is a perception that significant reforms are required. In January, Germany’s federal statistical service announced that the country’s GDP shrunk for the second consecutive year, by 0.2%, after a recession of 0.3% in 2023.
Voters attribute to Saltz that his government did little to correct the situation.
One of the main reasons for economic distress is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Germany ended its heavy dependence on Russian gas, a decision that, combined with increasing competition from China in the automotive industry – one of the largest sectors of the German economy – as well as an imminent trade crisis due to aggressive policy. of the Trump government are causing concern.
At the heart of the debate on the economy lies the rejuvenation of the German car industry. The central bank of Germany has pointed out that the industry’s problems are “structural”, which exacerbates the economic downturn.
Large companies, such as Volkswagen – one of the largest automakers in the world – are faced with the possibility of mass layoffs and factories.
The scenarios of the formation of a government
According to the latest poll, the Wahlen Institute’s political barometer on behalf of ZDF, the Christian Union (CDU/CSU) maintains the lead it has secured for months, with 28% (-2) followed by the far-right alternative to Germany (AfD) with 21% (+1). The Social Democratic Party (SPD) follows 16% and without a change in its rates, as do the Greens with 14%. The Left continues to increase its strength and reaches 8%(+1), while Liberals (FDP) and Zara Wagenknecht (BSW) are reinforced by half a unit but remain below the 5%limit, with 4.5%. The undecided, three days before the election, amounted to 27%. The picture was similar before the 2021 elections, but then the difference between the first (SPD) and a second party (CDU/CSU) was marginal.
With the data of this poll and given that the parties, the only politically realistic coalition would be possible between the Union and the SPD, with a marginal majority. The number of parties that will eventually be able to find themselves in the next House will be crucial, as the more it is, the more likely two parties will be enough for the formation of a sustainable government coalition.
External interventions in the election campaign
The strengthening of the far -right is also linked to interventions in favor of AfD by both Russia and the US. Throughout the pre -election period there were misinformation campaigns, with false news, extensive use of artificial intelligence, as well as overt statements of far -right support, such as those of US Vice President Jay Di Vanzis or the Billionaier.
The ballots are closed at 18:00, when the first prediction of exit poll is expected. A short time later, the flow of official results will begin. Since Monday, the Government of Olf Saltz is becoming service and for important decisions should consult the winner of the elections and its potential partners. Friedrich Mertz has stated that he considers the new government to have formed until Easter or a few weeks later.
Although in Germany there is no question of government or volatility, unlike other times, this time everyone recognizes the pressure of Berlin to have as soon as possible fully functional leadership, as the need for decisions is so imperative because of the prolonged. Recession and turmoil in immigration, as well as foreign policy, under the unprecedented conditions created by the Trump government in the US.
