In an extremely fluid international environment, after the president’s shift and their approach with his Russia – on the occasion of the end of the war in Ukraine – at the expense of America’s traditional alliance with Europe, today comes to the polls, in the polls, in the polls, to Framework of early parliamentary elections.
The outcome, critical and before the US shift, is now of greater importance, as Germany, one of the EU founding countries, is called upon to play a leading role in Europe’s response to the US, both at the level of economic policy, as it is in the face of a leading role. The threat of imposing US duties on European products, as well as at the level of European defense.
the right -wing Christian Democrats (CDU), under the Friedrich Mertzmaintain a net lead with 30%, while the far -right alternative to Germany (AfD), under the Alice Weidel, It remains second, having increased its percentage by one unit, from 20% to 21% compared to last week. The increase is related to the terrorist attack by an Afghan immigrant with two dead on February 13 in Munich. Third, with 16% still the Social Democrats (SPD) come out of the outgoing Chancellor Olaf Saltzand fourth, with 13% of the Greens, under today’s Vice -Chancellor Robert Habek. In the last week, the German Left (Die Linke), which increases its rate to 7%, from 4.5%, has also been resurrected, and crosses the 5%limit required to enter the House.
According to a Yougov poll, one in five German voters, 20% of the electorate, remained undecided until last Thursday and said it would decide at the last minute in which party to vote.
7% of these voters said they would decide shortly before the polls were opened. Party staffs were concerned that the severe cold in Germany would prevent many voters from coming to the polls. It is noted that the first elections are since 1987, when the Berlin Wall had not yet fallen and Germany had not been reunited, which took place in the winter – electoral clashes in Germany usually take place at the end of summer or early autumn. .
Last Wednesday, the last election telegram was opposed to the candidates for Chancellors of the two traditional largest parties, the CDU and the SPD, Mertz with Saltz. – As in the previous telemarkes that both Videl and Habek had participated – while no questions were asked about Ukraine or the US.
Post -election partnerships
Concerning post -election collaborations, Merz, under the pressure of Saltz, reassured once again that he would not work with the AfD, nor would he accept to be elected Chancellor with AfD votes. Saltz rejected the SPD’s collaboration scenario with the Greens, the Left and the “Zara Wagenknecht Alliance” (BSW), the new leftist populist pro -Russian party, which the polls bring to 5%to the entry of the House.
Although during this latest telemarketing, Mertz and Salts exchanged charges (Mertz accused Saltz that the largest wave of bankruptcies of German companies had noticed in his days, and Saltz was respectively CDU that he intends to offer 20 tax cuts. billion euros to the rich) the possibility of a “large coalition” between CDU and SPD to set up a government is not excluded. According to Yougov estimates, the CDU (if the party receives 30% and 220 seats) and SPD (if it receives 16% and 115 seats) gives a majority to the House with 335 seats, out of a total of 630.
On the contrary, possible cooperation of Christian Democrats and Greens (if they receive 13% and 94 seats), a scenario aimed at finding the SPD in the opposition so that the far -right does not monopolize the opposition, two seats (314 instead of 316) for him. Formation of a government.
