Economist Mario Sergio Telles states that complementarity should favor negotiation to avoid increasing tariff
Mario Sergio Carraro Telles, 52, an economy superintendent of the (National Industry Confederation), said US steelmakers win with Brazilian semi -wing steel. The statement was given in an interview with Poder360.
US steelmakers turn Brazilian steel into products they sell to other industries. The US government that will raise to 25% the Brazilian steel and aluminum import tariff.
Financial market analysts that there is a risk that the rise of tariffs result in a fall of $ 700 million from Brazil’s steel exports to the US. In 2024, it was $ 4.1 billion.
Telles said he hopes that the help of Brazilian production will favor negotiation to avoid the discharge of tariffs. It was like this in 2018, in the 1st government of Donald Trump (Republican), which also tried to raise tariffs.
Watch the interview (43min9s)
Below, excerpts from the interview:
- GDP EM 2025 – “Our expectation is 2.4%. It will be greatly helped by agriculture, with a record crop even higher than 2023. Once it were, it would be below 2%. In 2024, the growth was 3.5% with a negative weight of agriculture [dado ainda não fechado]”;
- industry – “Production growth in 2 years in a row [2023 e 2024] For the first time in almost a decade. The perspective for 2025 is around 2%. Let’s fall a lot [foi 3,1% em 2024]”;
- monetary policy – “We project Selic of 14.75% in May. The increase [a partir de setembro de 2024] It takes 6 to 9 months to reach the real economy. The latest data from 2024 is very bad. Selic reached 14.25% [em 2015] to deal with inflation that reached 12%. I would not need to raise the interest rate over 14.75% to deal with an inflation that is half that ”;
- Credit Retraction – “In 2024, credit concessions grew by 10%. We expect 5% to 6% [em 2025]”;
- Fiscal impulse – “It will have a much lower contribution to the demand of the federal government and state and municipal governments. The Federal, in 2024, increased by 3.1% primary expenses. For 2025, we project 1.9%. It will be much smaller in state and municipal governments. In 2024 it was around 7%. For 2025, we projected 1.5%”;
- US Tariffs – “There is a prospect of greater inflation in the US. The Fed [banco central do país] was reducing the interest rate. At the last meeting, he stopped. Increased rates should reduce trade, with a negative effect on world economic growth. [O real deve ficar] weaker in relation to the dollar. This has an inflationary effect in Brazil ”;
- real – “Due to the effect of the interest rate and for US tariff issues dissipating, we have an average projection of the year of R $ 5.70 and around R $ 5.50 in December”;
- federal government spending – “The goals of the tax framework are not enough to contain the growth of public debt. We project 76% growth [do PIB] At the end of 2024 to 79% in 2025. We need to defend in Congress new measures to make the control of expense growth even stronger. The fiscal policy [precisa] help monetary policy for the interest rate to fall”;
- labor market – “The number of employed people grew less by 2024 than in previous years, but the average real income increased significantly. The two together grew 7%”;
- Income Tax Reform – We expect the proposal that the federal government will send to Congress will be neutral from the tax point of view, even if the exemption up to R $ 5,000 [mensais]. This will be offset by tax increases and other sources;
- Strengthening of Industry – The reform of consumption taxation will be critical to giving competitiveness to the transformation industry, submitted to international competition. In 2nd place, there is the new industrial policy, which seeks innovation. The fiscal cost of this is very small. [Permitirá] Increase our self -sufficiency in health and with medicines and a number of other products. This brings a breath for us to start recovering industry participation in GDP. It is not over the other sectors. Industry is a very large plaintiff of agriculture and services.
