Three years ago, at dawn on February 24, 2022, A, by land, sea and air, climbing a conflict started in 2014, when Vladimir Putin ordered the annexation of the Crimea Peninsula. The war has generated a great global movement of solidarity with Ukrainians and an organized response of economic sanctions to the Russians.
But today there is a clear risk of Ukraine’s isolation for the change of government in the US, which could force President Volodymir Zelensky to accept heavy terms for a ceasefire.
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O Infomoney He surveyed how the country’s conditions are devastated by daily attacks and also the main actors in this drama. Read below:
Humanitarian disaster
UNHCR, the United Nations Refugee Agency, states that the conflict has caused the largest and fastest displacement crisis in Europe since World War II. Since February 2002, it is estimated that nearly 6.9 million refugees from Ukraine have been registered globally, and 92% have housed in European countries. Of this total, 59% are women, 31% children and 6% old people. To these are almost 4 million people who were forced to move internally in Ukraine itself, moving away from the most intense combat regions to the east and south of the country. Although most of these refugees have plans to return to the end of the war, their former homes may have been reduced to rubble and access to services such as electricity, heating and water should take a long time to be restored. As much of the industrial park has been affected, a job crisis is also expected in the early years.
Death
Accounting military lives losses in the Ukraine War is not an easy task because strategic information is considered. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia has lost more than 700,000 soldiers between dead and injured, while about 48,000 are considered missing. On the Ukrainian side, there would be about 400,000 dead or injured and 35,000 missing. But President Volodymir Zelensky only admitted the loss of 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers, while estimated Russian casualties in 180,000, with another 550,000 injured. In the civilian population, which has a more reliable estimate, losses on the Ukrainian side exceed 12,000 people, while on the Russian side would be almost 400 deaths.
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Occupied territory
In these three years of war, Russia still occupies the equivalent of 19% of the Ukrainian territory, more precisely in the south and southeast of the country, a portion of the territory where it is still calculated that about 3.5 million citizens from Ukraine are still living. The province, or “Oblast”, of Crimea has been under Russian control since 2014, but Vladimir Putin’s troops maintain control of most of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizehzia and Kherson provinces. Both sides usually disclose advances and setbacks in Donbass, a region that can host the hardest fighting in 2025. A recent analysis of the European European Tank Policy Center (EPC) has warned that maintaining those portions of territory in Russian power in a ceasefire agreement It can be dangerous for the future. “In the medium term, it should not be forgotten that Putin Russia is an expansionist by nature, seeking to master its neighborhood,” says the study, noting that Moldova and Georgia are already Russian secret line of fire and that there is a worrying presence in Africa and the Middle East. In addition, the alliance with North Korea can lead to conflict in Asia Pacific.
Economy in Prangalhos
Last year, the World Bank estimated that the total cost of reconstruction and recovery of Ukraine will consume $ 486 billion in the next decade, a value that may have already exceeded US $ 500 billion for continuity of the conflict – by 2023, the account was at $ 411 billion. Most resources should be applied in housing, transportation, commerce and industry, energy and agriculture, which were the most affected sectors by combat or interruption of services. At least 10% of dwellings across the country were damaged or destroyed. Although deindustrialization was already an identified problem before war, the country’s industrial capacity must have retreated up to 25% since the invasion, especially steel and mechanics. Ukrainian GDP collapsed 18.9% in the first year of the war and another 10.1% the following year. With defense spending, export resumption and recovery of part of the metallurgy force, it is estimated that the economy has grown 4% by 2024, and should advance 2.5% by 2025 and 2.0% by 2026.
Trump factor?
The change of tone in American support was very clear last week, when President Donald Trump endorsed the end of hostility negotiations without the concern to include Ukrainians in the conversation. The American seems to have completely bought the idea of Ukraine had most of his responsibility in the conflict. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reacted by saying that Trump made misinformation -based decisions and heard back that he acted as a dictator in his country.
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Trump really seems willing to convince Zelensky by the financial way. In Truth Socialfrom his property, he wrote that “modestly successful comedian” [antes da política, o ato Zelensky fez sucesso numa série de comédia] “Convinced the US to spend $ 350 billion to enter a war that could not be overcome, which never had to start, but a war that he, without the US and“ Trump ”(sic), will never be able to Solve. ”
He also wrote that “this war is much more important to Europe than to us” because there is “great and beautiful ocean as separation” of the conflict. “Zelenskyy, it is better to act fast or will no longer have a country,” he said.
And the future
It is no exaggeration to say that Zelensky is in a crossroads with the current movement of the United States on the global chess board. Losing financial support (which translates into the military) leaves Ukraine in a weakened position to face Russia or bear exaggerated assignments in a ceasefire agreement. Although not in the European interest is passive to a Putin advance in geopolitics, countries are involved in their own internal issues-Germany, for example, will change its Prime Minister soon. But there are those who argue to expand help to Ukrainians: A study by the Tony Blair Institute for global change states that an additional $ 40 billion in military aid to Ukraine – increasing the current $ 95 billion to match $ 135 billion From Russia – would transform Ukraine’s ability to fight in war. The cost of abandoning the country will be higher in the long run, the text claims.
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(Sources: The Economist, European Council of Foreign Relations -ECFR, in the acronym in English, Johns Hopkins University, Center for Strategic and International Studies -CSIS, Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, GMK Center, World Bank, OECD and Foreign Affairs Magazine )
