Political scientist Antonio Lavareda, during the program “CNN Elections: 2026 has begun, ”analyzed a recent poll of voting intention for the next presidential elections, revealing significant insights about the Brazilian political scenario.
Second, the technical draw between current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) and former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in a possible second round “shows the divided country of 2022 practically, rescues that.” This observation suggests that the political polarization that marked the last elections is still present in the Brazilian electorate.
Candidates’ performance in second round scenarios
The research presented second round projections involving several potential candidates. President Lula appears well positioned, overcoming most scenarios presented. However, the clash with Bolsonaro remains fierce, with the two “stiff the two tight” in the presenter’s words.
Lavareda identified three distinct levels among the analyzed candidates. In the first, are Lula and Bolsonaro, practically tied. In a second level, are Tarcísio de Freitas, and Eduardo Bolsonaro, with similar performances among themselves. Already in the third group, farther from the leaders, appear Ronaldo Caiado and Pablo Marçal.
The governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema, appears with a difference of 17 percentage points compared to Lula, occupying the farthest position among the names evaluated.
Perspectives for 2026
Despite the temporal distance to the next presidential elections, Lavareda stated that “the names that will be more competitive, Clarissa, next year, regardless of the distance we are today from the election, these names will be extracted from this list that the viewer is contemplating now ”.
This analysis suggests that while the political scenario may change by 2026, the main competitors of the presidency will probably emerge from the name group already in evidence in the current research. This emphasizes the importance of continuous monitoring of political movements and public opinion in the coming years.
