Political scientist Antonio Lavareda, during the program CNN Elections: 2026 has already begun, presented an analysis of the possible popular names for the 2026 presidential elections. According to him, the great unknown of next year will be the behavior of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
Lavareda pointed out that, despite the significant distance from the other names mentioned in recent research, the position of Tarcisio de Freitas is drawn to the position shortly thereafter.
The current governor of São Paulo, although not consolidated national projection, already appears as one of Bolsonaro’s probable political heirs.
Bolsonaro’s influence on the candidacies
The political scientist emphasized that the great unknown to the 2026 elections is how Bolsonaro will position himself. Even with the high probability of maintaining its ineligibility, there is doubt if the former president will follow the same path as Lula in 2018, maintaining an application until the end and thus “kidnapping the alternatives.”
Lavareda mentioned that she has already stated that she will not be a candidate if Bolsonaro is in the dispute. Other names like Ronaldo Caiado and Ratinho Júnior would also have their candidates affected by Bolsonaro’s decision.
The growth of the right and the role of Bolsonaro
The analyst stressed that the names pointed out by the research Paraná are predominantly from the right, reflecting the growth of this political spectrum, especially after the municipal elections. However, Lavareda emphasized that Bolsonaro continues to have “the key to access to the heart of much of this electorate.”
Lavareda’s analysis suggests that, regardless of its eligibility, it remains a central figure in the definition of the electoral scenario to 2026, especially in the right field. Its influence on potential candidates and the conservative electorate will be decisive for the configuration of the next presidential dispute.
