It is not today that the idea that “nothing happens before carnival” no longer matches reality. By 2025 it was no different: we have seen everything a little this beginning of the busy year, including the exchange of legislatures, against former president, a crisis of popularity in the government. But the vote of (LOA) remains stuck.
According to the Constitution, LOA should be sent to presidential sanction by December 22 of the year before its execution. Delays are not new. The most serious occurred in, when the budget was approved only in October. The most recent case was in 2021, with a vote in March – a scenario that can be repeated now.
The chairman of the Joint Budget Commission (CMO), deputy (PP-PI), and rapporteur, Senator (PSD-BA), leave their positions at the end of March and want to secure the vote before that. But it doesn’t just depend on them. The meeting between the three powers to resolve the impasse of parliamentary amendments will be decisive. If there is no agreement on transparency criteria, will Congress continue to crash the budget vote?
Although the government can spend a twelfth of the estimated budget monthly, this rule does not cover asnserted in the budget piece. The current interpretation is that the amendments would not be contemplated in the twelfth since they were not part of the budget proposal sent by the government to Congress. In addition, according to reported by Sheetthe government already prepares decree to contain expenses until budget approval.
The squeeze in amendments helps to understand the recent approval in the Senate of the bill that reverses the cancellation of expenses registered as remains to be paid since 2019. If the amendments are so crucial to deputies and senators, even when they will continue to use LOA as a coin Exchange to press the Supreme and the Lula government against the implementation of measures that expand transparency and traceability in the destination of budget amendments?
The budgetary impasse challenges challenges to Brazilian democracy. The expansion of the control of public investments limits the executive’s space, aggravated by the lack of transparency. In addition, congress and opposition, which try to label the government as a spending and irresponsible with the public accounts, show no willingness to approve expenses, as evident in the clash about the exemption of the sheet.
There are also other important issues that depend on Congress approval this year 2025. For example, the government is interested in approving proposals to complete tax reform and for the standardization and implementation of social policies. Part of the opposition intends to advance in the amnesty debate to the condemned by the scammer acts of January 8, 2023. None of this should advance before the approval of LOA 2025.
With Carnival knocking on the door, it remains to be seen if, after the revelry, there will be reasons for optimism or if the budget impasse will continue to dictate the pace of the year.
