You can’t ignore the elephant in the room: Friedrich Merz’s CDU won and will govern, but the far right shouted in strength in Germany
If Alexander Kerner’s mother saw the Electoral Map of Germany after Sunday she was able to return to a film vortex looking for food cans of the Soviet era. The son of old lady Christiane, star of the magnificent “goodbye, Lenin!” “If they didn’t see, see, it’s worth it,” he would certainly have difficulty explaining to his mother what happened to his east Germany, now completely taken by the far right.
This is yet: the map shows the former territory of the democratic Republic of Germany (RDA) completely painted blue, in a brutal kick to the traffic light that made up a government of social democrats of the SPD (incarnate), FDP liberals (yellow) and the Green (self -explanatory). It is a lighter blue, and it is also the blue of the alternative to Germany (AFD), a party that aligns in a pro-Putin, anti-immigration logic and that this Sunday had its best result, duplicating the vote of the last federals to reach 20% of voting intentions.
The crash was such that Alice Weidel, the party leader who was widely supported by Elon Musk – Donald Trump came promptly to say that this was a “big day”, it took a few minutes to react, to assert himself as a party that arrived in the bow. of power. She who again told the winner of the night that she wants to form government, otherwise the far right came to power for herself in another scenario.
“We are open to a coalition with the CDU. Otherwise there will be no possible political change in Germany,” he reiterated, speaking in a party that has never been nationally strong and that he is “with his hands to form a government.”
But the CDU leader, who had about 29%, as probably the next next chancellor of Germany, has denied this possibility. “We are not going to talk to a coalition with AFD. We told him before the elections and the people who voted for AFD knew that, ”said Friedrich Merz, pulling a“ very clear victory ”.
“I will seek to build a government that represents the entire country and solves the country’s problems. It’s no secret that you preferred to have only one coalition partner, ”he added, stressing that he intends to find a governance solution to Easter.
Friedrich Merz drinks a beer shortly after knowing that the elections (Marcus Brandt/Picture Alliance via Getty Images)
AFD No, therefore. So who? The easiest accounts, perhaps those of the optimists, would lead to say that CDU and the most defeated SPD have enough mandates to form a central bloc and govern the country.
Although defeated, in what even defined as a “bitter” result – the SPD had the worst result in 130 years, with about 16.5% – the still Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed some availability, although not exactly noticed for exactly.
Without ever saying black in white, the social democratic leader has understood that he is willing to support a government of conservatives if that is the only way to ward off the far right of power. Because Olaf Scholz did not say he was going to support CDU, but reiterated that “we should never accept” a party like AFD in power.
Returning to the map, the rest of Germany also turned to the right, though not so vinkly. From Bavaria to Renania, it is black that the regions are made, with a curious fact that confirms one of the best results of the night. Die Linke leftists (significantly literally “left”) managed to win in about half of the Berlin district on a purple island lost in a sea of blue, such a blue that Christine Kerner would not accept.
There were also occasional SPD victories or even the green, party that can clearly enter the accounts of a coalition.
Recovering an article published to anticipate these elections, we leave below the source of possibilities for government formation.
Groko: CDU + SPD
The so -called Gross Koalition – Great Coalition, or Groko – is one of Germany’s most famous government constellations, integrating CDU/CSU conservatives and SPD social democrats: since 1949, there have been four grokos, three of them under Angela’s leadership Merkel. The point is that, unlike previous scenarios, conservatives have moved a lot more to the right to the rudder of Merz, which makes commitments with the center-left more challenging.
For the current CDU leader, there is a man who has “shown impressively” how things must be negotiated in Groko: Boris Rhein, the current Prime Minister of the State of Hesse, who is part of the party’s ‘Merzian’ wing . When he won the regional elections in 2023, Rhein negotiated with the SPD and the green, eventually choosing to work with the SPD for being a more “flexible and conciliatory” partner.
In the final weeks before the federal elections, Merz often referred to the Hesse regional government as a following model-although when asked if he prefers to be collided with the SPD or the green, he replied that “the post situation after -Eletoral won’t be easy. ” Experts anticipate that SPD will be more flexible than green also at national level, especially with regard to migrations and asylum, Merz flag and an area in which social democrats themselves, particularly in the last year of governance.
If the electoral results point to a new Groko, it is likely to watch important movements within the SPD itself, because Olaf Scholz, the exit chancellor, has already excluded the hypothesis of integrating a Merz government. On the contrary, the Minister of Defense, Boris Pistorius, who many wanted as in these elections, and the party collide, Lars Klingbeil, should gain great relevance.
Germany from the outside. And Kenya?
Scholz’s traffic light coalition has headed since 2021 and fell because of quarrels with liberals, especially in view of the unavailability of the FDP to increase the ceiling of public debt and, therefore, was Germany’s first tripartite government in over 60 years .
Over the eight decades of the post-wari, the coalitions between two parties have been much more common, but the growing political fragmentation and the rise of popularity of several smaller parties, such as AFD and the Far-left BSW, founded A year ago by a communist dissident, they open their way to new types of agreements.
If the green, the FDP and the left can gain seats in Bundestag – it is not right for liberals at this time – a tripartisan alliance will be virtually impossible to avoid. In this case, and if the polls have not fled much to the real voting trends of the German electorate, the CDU faces two great options: the so -called German coalition, composed by CDU/CSU, the SPD and the FDP liberals or a less likely coalition Between CDU/CSU, SPD and Green, which the media baptize as Kenya coalition. (In both cases, the colors of the three parties correspond to the three colors of the German and Kenyan flags.)
Even if it proves unavoidable, the scenario of a tripartite coalition is little desired. The consensus among all parties is that there are so many political-ideological divisions that the new government would be, from the beginning, as fragile and prone to conflicts like the previous one. Like a few days ago: “To achieve the success you want, Germany’s probable next chancellor needs liberals and leftists to collapse and take fire.” The big question, especially in relation to Die Linke, is if Merz can tell that it is.
