The positive assessment of the president () among the Northeast voters lit the allied alert in the region, boosted charges for changes in the government and promises to move the 2026 electoral chess.
Research data released on the 14th point out that the president’s approval collapsed in the last two months,, the lowest level in his three terms.
In the Northeast, the president’s main electoral stronghold, the optimal and good rating of Lula fell from 49% to 33%, the largest regional fall. The region concentrates one in four Brazilian voters and was decisive for the petista’s victory in 2022.
The reduction of popularity happens in the wake of a series of Plateau’s wear and tear, including the government’s comings and goings in the “crisis” and high in food. The latter had an impact on the poorest population, reflecting on a drop in Lula’s positive assessment from 45% to 29% among voters who earn up to two minimum wages.
In the political environment, the reading is that the positive memory of its first two terms, between 2003 and 2010, can be insufficient to ensure a broad vote margin of the petista in the region.
The new scenario also plays the president’s vote transfer potential in 2026, considered essential for the victory of allies in previous states.
Eight of the nine governors of Northeast states were elected with the support of Lula in 2022. The exception is Raquel Lyra (PSDB), from Pernambuco, who has made approach movements with the petista.
In recent interviews, northeastern governors have classified Lula’s fall of popularity as a fleeting and reversible. But they have lined up a series of caveats for the resumption to happen.
(PT), from Ceará, defended a “big stir” on the team and a shake to accelerate the deliveries. (PT), from Rio Grande do Norte, suggested to Lula intensify the presence of the Northeast. (PT), from Piauí, said communication needs to be perfected.
In general, the relationship between president and governors is viewed as a kind of transmission belt that feeds back, with losses and gains for both parties depending on the political scenario.
On the one hand, the allies are turbocharged by Lula’s personal prestige and federal government works. Governors, it is up to sew the alliances, narrowing ties with local leaders of parties such as, and.
The fall of the president’s popularity, however, shakes one of the pillars of this relationship. The scenario becomes even more challenging amid the brake of arrangement given by the (Supreme Court) in the decision that resulted in complaints of parliamentarians and mayors.
“The people charges the actions of the mayor. When he has no resources, he will look for a culprit for health problems, the back roads. And the fault falls on the president,” says the senator (PSD-BA), allied that Lives one with the PT of Bahia.
Adversaries see the moment as a favorable and mobilize with an eye on the 2026 elections. The Governor of Goiás, (União Brasil) chose Bahia to launch in April his presidential candidacy. The party is part of Lula’s base, but lives with internal dissent
“The current scenario brings an injection of mood into the right and center-right field, which has a greater expectation of victory in 2026. This has absurd political, psychological effect,” says Salvador’s former mayor and deputy National President of União Brasil.
Defeated to the Bahia government in 2022, he says the Lula factor had a determining weight in the northeast states. But it evaluates that the scenario is different: “Now you see a Lula with less vote transfer potential.”
Allies recognize that December and January were confused months for the federal government and that the opposition knew how to fit his speech, reflecting on the wear and tear of Lula’s image. But they reiterate that the scenario should not impact the strength the president has in the Northeast.
“Lula’s relationship is not only with governors or the political class of the region, but with the northeastern people. It is a relationship built in years and years of struggle, work and delivery,” says Éden Valadares, president of the PT in Bahia.
For political scientist Paulo Fábio Dantas Neto, professor at UFBA (Federal University of Bahia), a reversal of the Lula government crisis scenario is facing political challenges. Among them are the lack of a programmatic horizon, the difficulty in dealing with the demands of today’s society and the inability in the relationship with the.
Another challenge is in, considering that the protagonism of social networks tends to reduce the regional discrepancies of electoral phenomena. That is, the information circulates following dynamics that reduce the weight of the local context.
“The Northeast is not an island, it is not a society island with its own logic. There are, of course, local phenomena with important electoral repercussions, but there is a loss of appeal of this regional logic,” he says.
Since the beginning of the year, Lula made a single visit to the Northeast: it was the city of 20,000 inhabitants in southwest Bahia. The expectation of the allies is that the region is in the script of the next trips, with the inauguration of works and announcement of new projects.
