Germany may face months of uncertainty after the conservative Block CDU/CSU leads polls of the ballot box of parliamentary elections, but without a clear option to form a government amid a fragmented political scenario.
With the possible entry of up to seven parties in Parliament, the conservatives,
The composition of the coalition will depend on the entry into the parliament of free democrats (FDP) and leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Bewegung (BSW), which oscillate around the 5% threshold required to occupy seats.
See a summary of the most likely coalitions and the concessions that will be required to reach a deal, according to the first projections of the results of the ZDF station.
Great coalition (CDU/CSU and social democrats)
A so-called large coalition of the two major centrist parties, CDU/CSU and Centro-left-left social democrats (SPD) has been seen as the most likely electoral result, but according to the first projections, the two parties together They can’t get a majority of 316 seats.
If the final results expel the FDP and BSW from Parliament, a large coalition would be possible.
The SPD and CDU/CSU have ruled together four times since World War II – three times under the leadership of the former conservative chancellor Angela Merkel.
Merz, however, moved his block even more to the right, assuming a harder position compared to immigration than Merkel and a more pro-market position in the economy.
CDU/CSU wants wide tax reductions, while SPD wants to increase taxes for high income workers and resume a wealth tax. This means that both may have difficulty reaching an agreement on deeper reforms.
Probability: 60% according to the Eurasia group.
Kenya (CDU/CSU, social democrats, green)
Scholz’s tripartite coalition, the first in Germany in decades, collapsed due to internal disputes in November last year. But Merz may be forced to find two partners if FDP and BSW reach the 5%limit, fragmenting the attribution of seats.
CDU/CSU, SPD and green could decide to form a so -called “Kenya” coalition, since their colors coincide with those of the Kenyan flag. This coalition is currently one of the few mathematically possible to reach the majority, with 374 seats if the smallest FDP and BSW remain in Parliament.
Such coalitions rarely occurred at the state level. Although conservatives and greens share some opinions on foreign policy, such as the need to provide more decisive support to Ukraine, they are very distant in internal politics and, in particular, immigration.
Merz repeatedly criticized Green Party leader Robert Haben, as a “failed” economy minister, discarding the possibility of prolonging his term.
Probability: 10% according to the Eurasia group.
Germany (CDU/CSU, social democrats, free democrats)
Another unlikely tripartite combination could be the “Germany” coalition of CDU/CSU, SPD and FDP, named after the black, red and golden flag colors. Such coalition would guarantee a small majority with 326 seats.
It would be difficult for the FDP and the SPD to find a consensus, as a dispute over the budget between Scholz and the head of the FDP, Christian Lindner, who was then minister of finance, led to the collapse of the tripartite coalition and triggered early elections.
Probability: 10% according to the Eurasia group.
Mintorist government
Some German states had minority governments looking for different partners for each legislative piece.
However, this never happened at the beginning of a new federal legislature, shortly after a coalition imploded due to fears of the instability it could create.
Some politicians, however, ask parties to consider this option, given the complexity of forming a coherent coalition.
Merz himself said in an interview in 2017 that parties should not exclude the possibility of a minority government, although he has not commented on the matter lately.
E in afd?
Mathematically, the conservatives and the alternative to ultra -right Germany (AFD) get a majority of 318 seats, but all other parties have ruled out the possibility of forming a coalition with AFD. The strength of the party is another factor that can complicate the construction of a coalition and the guarantee of a parliamentary majority.
