The president Vladimir Putinfrom Russia, took the stage in Sochi in the past fall, two days after the election of Donald Trump As president of the US, and talked about the dawn of a new world order.
“In a way,” said Putin, “the moment of truth is coming.”
Maybe he has arrived.
After three years of exhausting war and isolation from the West, a world of new possibilities opened to Putin with the change of power in Washington.
The statements made in the East Room of the White House disappeared about the United States to face oppressors, support democracy over autocracy, and ensure that freedom prevails.
Nor is there a united front between Washington and its European allies against Russia, many of whom have begun to wonder if the new US government will protect them against a revanchist Moscow or even keep troops in Europe.
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Trump, who has already expressed the desire to quickly seek a rapprochement with Kremlin, leaving astonished European allies.
It is a quick change of luck to Putin. He remained firmly on the battlefield – despite increasing pressures and costs – to wait for the weakening of Western determination in a much longer and more difficult conflict than Moscow expected. Now the Russian leader can believe that his moment has come to change the balance of power in favor of Kremlin, not just in Ukraine.
“I believe he see a real opportunity, both to win the war in Ukraine, effectively, and to marginalize the US not only from Ukraine, but from Europe,” said Max Bergmann, an analyst at Russia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington and former employee of the State Department during the Obama government.
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Putin’s “grandiose objective,” said Bergmann, is the destruction of NATO, the military alliance of 32 countries led by the United States, established after World War II to protect Western Europe from the Soviet Union.
“I believe this is now totally on the table,” said Bergmann.
Opportunity for Russia
The opening represents one of the greatest opportunities for Putin in its 25 years of power in Russia.
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For years, Putin lamented the weakness that Russia demonstrated in the decade following the fall of the Soviet Union and settled in the reversal of the influence that the United States gained in Europe at Kremlin’s expense.
Prior to the Ukraine invasion three years ago, Putin filed demands on the US and his European allies that went far beyond Ukraine, proposing the resurgence of cold war -style influences in a European -divided Europe and Washington.
He demanded that NATO agree not to expand east to any nation of the former Soviet union, including Ukraine. He also asked the US and its Western Europe allies to not send troops or weapons to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe that previously responded to Moscow.
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At the time, the West immediately rejected Putin’s pre-war proposals as unthinkable. The Russian leader is now almost certain to revive them in imminent negotiations with Trump, a long-standing NATO skeptic and the presence of US troops in Europe. This has caused a crisis among the European allies, who are concerned about what the US president can give in.
Last chance for Putin?
Even though Trump’s return has changed the geopolitical environment in favor of Putin, the Russian leader suffered serious settings over three years of war and has not yet been able to bring his goal of bringing Ukraine back to Moscow orbit.
Putin got wins on the battlefield, winning about 3,900 km² of Ukraine last year, but has not yet fully assumed the four Ukrainian regions that the Kremlin formally “attached” in 2022. Although the Ukrainian forces are facing staff shortages, not yet not yet There was a great Russian offensive that caused the total collapse of the Ukrainian lines.
Putin gains also had a significant cost. The Russian war economy is facing difficulties, with 10%inflation, very high interest rates and unstable economic growth, despite the enormous spending on state defense. NATO expanded to include Finland and Sweden, just the opposite of what Putin wanted.
On the way to negotiations, Trump faces the additional difficulty that Putin is not a popular figure among the American public. Any agreement seen as a kremlin appeasement can be difficult to sell internally, although most Americans favor a quick end to the conflict, as Trump promised in the campaign.
Putin, however, benefited from changes in the information environment and growing admiration in the right-wing media, led by former Fox News Tucker Carlson presenter, who visited Moscow to interview him last year.
“If you are at Kremlin watching this, yes, there is an opportunity, but do not create much expectations,” said Thomas Graham, a member of the Foreign Council. “A lot can change quickly, and at the end of the day, Trump is unpredictable.”
