ATEF Safadi / EPA
The war in Ukraine completes this Monday, February 24, three years. According to the experts, the result of this war is still likely to be decided on the battlefield.
At a time when Ukraine’s total invasion of Russia completes her third anniversary, the conflict suffered a dramatic and unexpected turnaround.
The US is leaving Abruptly support for Ukraine, after having promised earlier who would support Kiev “during the time it was necessary.”
I and Europe “is in panic” – writes the history teacher of Queen’s University Belfast, Alexander Titovno .
Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues with public discussions with the newly deposed US President, Donald Trumpwho last week accused Ukraine president of being one.
At this stage, it seems that Vladimir Putin is coming out. However – considers Alexander Titov – Trump is not the main cause of this scenario.
From eight to 80, in three years
When the war broke out at dawn on February 24, 2022, the world was already prepared for a Western front united against Russia.
The western determination was reinforced as the expectations of a quick victory of Moscow faded and Ukraine self -confidence increased.
In September 2022, when the Ukrainian army regained much of the territory occupied by Russia in the Kharkiv region of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said that “the Russian industry is in crash”.
And so it seemed. On September 21, (the first since World War II), because the professional army of Russia was running out of men.
O Putin’s original plan had failed. Russia was retreating in Kharkiv and abandoning its strategic position on the right bank of Dnieper in Kherson.
After all, who “is in crangles”?
Only, suddenly, things have changed: As the war approaches its third year, The triumphalist spirit of the West is now a distant memory.
Mark RutteSecretary-General of NATO, warned on January 13 that “what Russia now produces in three months is what all NATO produces in a year”-far from the jubilage of von der Leyen with the “Russian economy in crash ”2022.
In recent days as US president, Joe Biden has sent more weapons to Ukraine and imposed increasingly harsh sanctions on Moscow.
However, this did not hide the fact that the US cannot continue to finance Ukraine as they did during the first three years. Any US President would now have difficulty making another Ukraine financing law pass in Congress.
And Donald Trump is very different from Biden. In his first month in office, his country’s policy has changed in relation to Ukraine in a characteristic and abrupt way.
From the failure of the much -appointed Ukrainian counter -eating in the summer of 2023, it was clear that Ukraine is not able to overcome militarilywrites Alexander Titov. Therefore, continuing to supply Ukraine at current levels will only prolong the fight, not changing the course of war.
From Trump’s point of view, this is a war that Biden let. The US president now wants to find a quick solution and move on. If you fail, you can “wash your hands” and let the Europeans deal with the subject.
Europe does not clearly know what to do now: It cannot accept defeat, but it cannot pretend that Ukraine can win the war without US support.
It is a sign of its desperation that, in “emergency meetings”, if so long to discuss and, frankly, highly unlikely, to send European troops to Ukraine.
The best that the EU can do, on the third anniversary of the invasion, is to present another package of sanctions: the 16th. But now that the United States has changed ideas about its war goals, there is no way to hide that the Europe’s War Strategy is in crangles.
More bloody battles are coming
Russia is not under pressure to rush into an agreement that does not like it. Moscow conditions are known: whether the formal recognition that the four regions that attached in September 2022 (plus Crimea) are part of Russia; and the removal of the other Ukrainian troops from these regions.
Kiev, in the vision of the Russians, must commit to permanent neutrality and to limit their armed forces.
More you are Conditions are completely unacceptable for Kiev. And although there is no good way to Ukraine, Ukrainians are not yet in a sufficiently desperate position to accept such agreement.
The only way to impose it on Kiev is a Total military collapse of the Ukrainian forces (which does not seem likely at this time) or the concerted pressure of a united West to accept the unpleasant conditions of Russia.
But the West is divided on this issue, with Europeans to insist that Ukraine must continue to fight until he can negotiate “from a position of strength.”
In early 2023, Zelenskyy stated that “2023 will be the year of our victory!”. However, every anniversary of the invasion sees Kiev’s position weaken.
According to current trends, Russia would take until the end of the year to capture the rest of the eastern province of Donbas, without which the end of the war is unlikely.
For this reason, as Alexander Titov writes, there is no guarantee that the conversations between the West and Russia lead to the resolution of the conflict.
This means that “The bloodyist battles of the war are yet to come”says the expert, since the Russian army is trying to maximize its military advantage.
This Sunday, Zelenskyy said he is willing to resign in office “immediately”, .
“If there is peace to Ukraine, if they really need to leave my position, I’m ready. I can exchange it for the NATO, ”he said at a press conference.
