The Government has put numbers to the condonation of the autonomous debt agreed with ERC. The proposal, which, as these agreements collected is expandable to all the common regime territories, would mean to remove the communities of 25% of the total they accumulate, but it would not be granted to all the same forgiveness. If the Executive’s approach achieves green light – it has to be approved by law in Congress -, Andalusia would be recognized the greatest remove in absolute terms; The Canary Islands would be forgiven half of his liability. But how has the amount for each territory been calculated? What autonomy will favor the most?
The “over -indebted” figures
The first step to prepare the condom proposal has been to calculate how much the autonomous debt grew between December 31, 2009 and the same date of 2013, a few years in which the financial crisis hit the economy strongly and left the public accounts by shivering . The collection chopped, the resources of the communities diminished and the only way to pay for expenses was to issue debt, a task that was done uphill to both the administration as a whole and many territories: the markets began to demand The communities with the most maltrech finances unasumable interests and with the creation of liquidity mechanisms. It was so that the liabilities of the communities – and not only -, in charge of providing basic services such as health and education, grew as foam, in 109,582 million, according to the calculations of the Ministry of Finance, which guilt of that “over -indebtedness ”To the PP executive policies that ruled during those years.
This departure figure has been subtracted from the increase that regional debt has experienced between December 31, 2019 and December 31, 2023, an equally or more convulsive period by the pandemic and the inflationary crisis. However, the response of the State and the EU was radically different. Instead that cutting expense, the communities received an avalanche of resources and the autonomous liabilities advanced at a much lower pace, at 29,272 million. “The clear premise is that and it was a strong deterioration of the accounts of the communities that were forced to overcome themselves with mechanisms such as Fla,” said the Minister of Finance on Monday, María Jesús Montero, during the presentation of the condom proposal, That he announced about an hour after ERC leader, Oriol Junqueras, made public the amount that would be forgiven to his community.
The cast by tight population
The difference between the two aforementioned figures shows an amount of about 80,000 million. The government has decided that 75% of that total, about 60,000 million, is the starting point to calculate the removal that touches each community. The cast has been made depending on the variable takes into account the number of inhabitants, but corrects it with demographic factors, such as aging or the number of minors of school age, and geographical, for example the dispersion, since the services are more expensive to lend if the percentage of the major population is high or population density is low.
With this criterion of condonation by adjusted population, it removes it for all the territories would be 1,369 euros per citizen and 19% on the total of the regional liabilities recorded in the late 2023. Some communities, specifically those that have high debts , they would remain below that percentage. Therefore, after this initial calculation, which the Treasury calls Phase 1adjustments have been introduced.
Corrections
The first adjustment, or Phase 2it has the objective that no community is below that 19% forcononation. To achieve this, they add to those 60,000 million euros another 11,514 that are distributed between Catalonia, Valencian Community, Balearic Islands, Castilla-La Mancha and Murcia. In the Phase 3 Two additional corrections are made. The first is aimed at compensating the infinance suffered by some territories, as they receive from the financing system less resources than the average, and means assigning another 11,506 million forgiveness. The second, with additional 917 million, rewards “the fiscal effort demanded by some communities to its citizens to improve the budgetary and fiscal situation,” says Hacienda in a statement.
There are six communities that do not benefit from these additional Quita amounts – Asturias, Cantabria, Castilla y León, Galicia, La Rioja and Madrid -, because they do not meet any of the requirements set, that is, they have no racies of debt, they are not undeaded or have lowered the IRPF in the period considered. Once all the phases have been added, the total amount to forgive rises to 83,252 million euros.
Andalusia, the most benefited
The big question is: What territory is most benefited? Andalusia is the community to which the greatest removes in absolute terms: 18,791 million. It is followed by Catalonia (17,104), Valencian Community (11,210) and Madrid (11,210), which have the highest volume of total debt; At the other end are Cantabria (809 million) and Asturias (1,508). This snapshot, however, does not have so much value, since it is normal for the largest communities to have larger liabilities and vice versa.
If it is calculated removed on the volume of liabilities – with the debt data of the third quarter of 2024 -, the Canary Islands would be the most benefited, as it would be forgiven to half of its ballast: 3.2 billion of the 6,400 it currently has. Andalusia come behind (47%of their liability), Asturias (36%), Galicia (33%) and Extremadura (32%) would be fought. If the removes is calculated on the tight inhabitants, the largest amounts are those of the underfunded communities-Valencian, Andalusia, Castilla-La Mancha and Murcia-, in addition to Catalonia, with about 2,284 euros per head. Even so, some of these communities would not even get the markets with the markets, since its debt ratio would remain very high. La Rioja, Cantabria, Madrid, Galicia and Castilla y León would receive the amount of amounts, about 1,168 euros each inhabitant. In total, the Treasury calculates that autonomies
Organic Law
The next step is to discuss the proposal the body that brings together the Ministry of Finance with the regional advisors of the branch. The negotiation will not be simple, since most of the communities of common regime, 11 of 15, are governed by the PP, which has already advanced that it will oppose the remove. The measure, in fact, is voluntary – regional barons can get off the way – and to apply it will need to be translated into an organic law, which has to be voted in Congress with a qualified majority. Hacienda estimates that it could be ready at the end of the year, as long as it manages to convince a very fragmented parliamentary arch.
