While the war tests the boundaries of Ukrainian democracy, Zelensky’s legitimacy faces Moscow’s and, now, Washington, in a dispute that can redefine the country’s future
The pressure on Volodymyr Zelensky continues to increase. When the Ukrainian President’s mandate expired technically in May 2024, Kremlin was quick to say that the leader of Ukraine had no legitimacy to govern. However, with Trump’s arrival at power, appeals for a new election now come from the White House. In Kiev, there is a vast list of potential candidates willing to compete in the place, but would they be able to ward off the man who united the country and promised to never “show their backs” to the Russian enemy?
“The United States has adopted a very pro-Russian position in recent weeks, hoping to separate Russia from China. And Americans have all the abilities of influencing elections in Ukraine. Russia from China. However, I believe Zelensky would have serious hypotheses of reelection. Specialist in International Relations, Diana Soller.
Since Donald Trump called “dictator” to the Ukrainian President, he said he had only 4% approval and suggested that it was Ukraine herself that the War began, Zelensky’s popularity increased. A study by the International Institute of Sociology published on February 19 points out that 57% of Ukrainians approve Volodymyr Zelensky’s actions as the country’s leader. These data demonstrate a slight climb of the opinion of the Ukrainians, after a constant descent from the beginning of the Russian invasion.
Volodymyr Zelensky, a central figure in the Ukrainian resistance since the Russian invasion in 2022, was elected president in 2019, defeating Petro Poroshenko for almost 50 points, with a five -year term. Since the beginning of the war, the Ukrainian parliament unanimously approved the martial law in the country, being renewed every 90 days. The Ukrainian Parliament justifies this decision to ensure government stability and avoid political divisions in times of extreme crisis, such as national war or emergency.
The Ukrainian President recently extended the martial law and mobilization until May 9, 2025, without indicating whether to try to reelection, maintaining the focus on the war. There are more and more appeals on the part of some of the most important figures of the new American administration for Ukrainians to return to the polls, but experts raise serious questions about the practicality of organizing elections.
“It is not possible to hold safe elections” while the country is at war, told Olga Unuch, Professor of Comparative and Ukrainian Politics at the University of Manchester, adding: “The problem is that the Russians would attack the places where the votes are to be printed. They would attack the transport vehicles that would try to take the votes to different places. They would attack the places where Ukrainians could vote. They would try to cut the electricity. That would be the problem of making an election as long as there is no ceasefire or a peace agreement that is fair. “
More than six million Ukrainians have fled the country since the beginning of the war and another four million have been displaced internally. Organizing a vote for such a great and dispersed diaspora would bring huge logistics challenges to a country almost exclusively focused on defending its territory against Russian advances. In addition, Ukraine would have to do, in practice, to abdicate the occupied regions, where the Russian military occupies the territory and where millions of Ukrainians continue to live.
“How can elections can be processed with four attached Ukrainian territories and with Russian military in these territories? Millions of citizens are in these areas and could not vote,” says Diana Soller.
The holding of elections while Ukraine actively wages a war would not contribute nothing to strengthen the country or strengthen its democracy – quite the contrary, says, only “would unnecessarily endanger Ukrainian cohesion and make the country highly vulnerable to campaigns of campaigns of campaigns Russian influence, eroding the determination and placing Ukrainians against Ukrainians. “
“Any elections in Ukraine can only take place six to ten months after the survey of martial law, which alone depends on reaching sustainable peace,” he also explained to Newsweek Elena Davlikanova, a fellow of the European Policy Analysis Center, which focuses on Ukrainian and Russian internal issues. “As long as there is war, it is impossible to predict whether Ukrainians will reelect President Volodymyr Zelensky, as election results depend on multiple factors – including the list of candidates, the success of the information campaigns and the course of the war itself . ”
The president of Ukraine said on Sunday that he would be willing to fire himself if this meant the peace and adhesion of his country to the NATO. “If to achieve peace it is necessary for me to give up my place, I am willing to do so,” Zelensky said in a statement that should not have any practical purposes.
The polls show that Zelensky’s approval rate has fallen since he took office. After the war began in 2022, the polls indicated that the vast majority of Ukrainians approved the way the president dealt with the conflict. At that time, its popularity was 90%, but since then it has been falling: in December 2023 it was 77%, in February 2024 it was 64%. Last December, only 52% of Ukrainians said they still trust the president.
However, “the reliability rate with the eligibility rate should not be confused,” warns Tiago André Lopes, citing a social monitoring in November 2024, in which Zelensky appeared second in the Ukrainian voting intentions, with Only 16%.
Tiago André Lopes considers that it is very difficult to predict what might happen in the elections, since he will have to take into account the developments in the war and the conditions of the peace agreement. However, he believes that the president will have a hard time being reelected.
“First, because it did not win the war. Zelensky always said he wanted to replace the borders of 2014 and bring Russia to court and, from what we see, none of these goals will be achieved, so it is very likely that the current administration will be punished at the polls. “
In addition, says the analyst, “Zelensky is the face of war and it is normal that in a postwar scenario Ukrainians want to elect a new face for a new period of their history.” It should also be remembered that lately the Ukrainian President has had some attitudes that undermine his reputation: he has sanctioned military and opponents, including poroshenko. “It seems to want to clean the opponents. Not even the state of war justifies this,” criticizes Tiago André Lopes. Ukraine “needs democratic reforms, has to show that it is able to enter the European Union.” “A democratic leader cannot be afraid to go the elections.”
However, Olga Unuch warns: “The numbers tell us that of all civilian politicians who can be potential candidates, he [Zelensky] It is by far the favorite. This is an indisputable empirical fact. If we put some very popular generals, they may or may not have the same classification as it. Anyway, he would be at the second round at least. It remains the most popular politician in Ukraine, and any other suggestion is an attempt to manipulate the facts on the ground. “
The other candidates with the hypothesis of winning
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, former Ukrainian military chief, appeared ahead in the poll cited by Tiago André Lopes with 27% of voting intentions.
“He is a very popular Major-General. He was removed in 2023 by Zelensky from the Armed Forces Head, however he was responsible for the Ukrainian counterofessive at a crucial moment of the war. Russia, “explains the expert on international affairs.
“Having a military in the presidency could be pernicious in a context of peace. But, on the other hand, we know that societies after troubled periods often like this authority, they want someone who comes to put order in a chaotic scenario,” he justifies.
It is not named in the poll, but Tiago André Lopes believes that another strong candidate is Dmytro Kuleba, the former Minister of Foreign Affairs. “He was responsible for the architecture of allies from Ukraine that still persists. It has intelligence and fluidity and is less phlegmatic than Zelensly,” explains the analyst. Kuleba “has been giving interviews almost every week, is clearly wanting to appear.”
The possibility of getting a peace agreement with Russia (and the holding of elections soon) came to animate the political opposition in Ukraine. Opponents are also encouraged by criticism that Trump and his counselors drove to Zelensky. According to, two of the politicians who ran against Zelensky in the Ukrainian elections in 2019-former President Petro Poroshenko and former Minister Yulia Tymoshenko-have kept contacts with members of the Trump team.
Tymoshenko was in Washington in January. Poroshenko was also there in December and talked to Tim Waltz, the National Security Counselor. “I received guarantees of the availability of the new American administration to demonstrate leadership in the matter of repeling Russian aggression and establishing fair peace in Ukraine,” he wrote on Facebook, adding that Trump’s team “remembers cooperation well” during its presidency. .
In fact, all polls refer to the hypothesis of Petro Poroshenko, the former president (2014-2019), apply, although hardly enough votes for the election. Tiago André Lopes also does not believe he has hypotheses, since he is very associated with the events of Maiden Square and then lost some elections against Zelensky.
Yulia Tymoshenko too “is trying to move,” admits the commentator. “But it is very associated with the practice of corruption and the 2005 war. It will be difficult to disconnect from the idea that it is a cleptocrat, which stole a lot of the public purse.”
Tiago André Lopes stresses that the result of the elections will depend a lot on what is in the peace agreement: “If the occupied territories are to Russia, the ability to influence the results is much lower, because the Russian population no longer votes But if there is a total return of Donbass to Ukraine, then the hypotheses of instrumentalization of a candidate are much greater, “he says. “It is necessary to know that part of Ukraine will vote. If it is the central and western zone, then the winning candidate will be more pro-president and European pro-union,” concludes Tiago André Lopes.
