Astronomers were closely monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, a celestial body that had a considerable probability of colliding with Earth in 2032. However, NASA announced on Monday that the risk was discarded: the chances of Impact fell to almost zero.
“I already imagined that this would happen as we collected more data,” said Davide Farnocchia, navigation engineer at the NASA jet propulsion laboratory in California. “I was sleeping well.”
The first calculations on the asteroid were made shortly after its observation on December 27, 2024, and indicated that it had more than 1% chance of reaching the earth. This was the greatest risk recorded by the agency for an asteroid of this size.
As scientists analyzed more information, the chances of impact rose to 1.2% in January and. Although it seems a small number, it was the highest probability ever recorded by NASA to an object of this size or larger.
Asteroid could destroy a city
It is estimated that the 2024 YR4 is between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, enough to cause devastation if it collided with a densely inhabited area. Preliminary calculations suggested that he could reach or explode in the air over large cities, such as Mumbai (India) and Lakes (Nigeria).
But one day after the 3.1% projection of impact chance, the numbers started to fall: 1.5% on February 19, 0.3% the next day and, on Monday, NASA announced that the Probability had plummeted to only 0.004% (1 in 25,000 chances).
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“This is already outdated,” said Farnocchia. New calculations indicate that the actual impact chance is now only 1 in 59,000.
Scientific process eliminated uncertainties
The probability of collision has changed as astronomers collected more data on asteroid orbit using terrestrial telescopes. With additional information, uncertainties about their journey through the solar system have decreased until experts concluded that there is no reason for concern.
“This is completely normal and part of the scientific process,” explained Farnocchia.
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Although Earth was discarded as a target, NASA still considers a small possibility of 1.7% of the asteroid collides with the moon. If this would leave another crater on its surface already marked by spatial impacts.
NASA continues to monitor 2024 YR4 from observatories around the world, such as Lowell Discovery Telescope, Arizona, and Nordic Optical Telescope, in the Canary Islands. However, until April, the asteroid will be out of sight and will only be observed in 2028 again.
“The asteroid will follow its natural way,” concluded Farnocchia. “The fact that we have detected and calculated your chances of impact so advanced is a good sign that we are doing the right job to deal with this type of risk.”
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