The former president () is numerically ahead of () in a poll for the second round of 2026 conducted by CNT/MDA and released on Tuesday (25).
If the second vote on the presidential election were today, according to the Institute, Bolsonaro, which is ineligible, would have 43.4% of the votes, compared to 41.6% of Lula. Still, there would be 12.5% of whites and nulls, and 2.5% of undecided. The situation is a technical draw, as the error margin is 2.2 percentage points.
The survey was conducted in person and interviewed 2,002 people from last Wednesday (19) until Sunday (23).
In the first round scenario where the petista and the former president compete, the first marks 30.3% of the votes, and the second, 30.1%, followed by (), with 9.8% and (), with 6 , 7%, already in the second platoon. White and null would total 11.1%, and 5.8% claim to be undecided.
Bolsonaro is ineligible until 2030 by decision of the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) who condemned him two years ago for lies against the electronic ballot boxes and for political exploitation of the Bicentennial Independence festivities.
Also according to the survey, Lula has numerical advantage in the second round scenario in which he disputes with the governor of, ()-most likely following the ineligibility of the former president and the complaint presented by the 2022 coup plot.
According to the survey, the current agent would have 41.2%, against 40.7% of the occupant of the Bandeirantes Palace. White and null is 13.4% in this simulation, and 4.7% claim to be undecided.
In the possibility of a first round where Lula disputes against Tarcisio, the president would mark 30.4% of the votes, against 14.3% of Ciro, 14% of the governor and 13.2% of Marçal.
The survey also tested scenarios with Finance Minister (PT), who also appears technically tied with Bolsonaro and Tarcisio.
Respondents were also asked about voting preference, and it is possible to see the division of the electorate in the answers – 35.1% would rather vote for any candidate who is not linked to the current president or his predecessor.
Another 30.7% would vote for Bolsonaro or someone supported by him, and 29%, in Lula or someone he sponsored.
Reflecting the petista’s popularity crisis, 28.7% said they saw the current government as great or good, while 26.3% consider regular administration and 44% evaluate petista management as bad or terrible. You don’t know or did not answer 1%.
