2024 ended with 2,273 companies asking for judicial recovery (RJ) in Brazil. The high interest and inflation scenario has been mainly punishing micro, small and medium -sized companies, responsible for 92% of requests, according to data from Serasa Experian. The participation of smaller companies in requests has been growing since 2022 and relief should not come in 2025, according to economists.
“Judicial recovery is at the end of the chain, other previous aspects need to improve to observe improvement in RJs,” says Camila Abdelmalack, economist at Serasa Experian.
She argues that delays in payments that evolve for default and then saw requests from RJ, should continue with Selic to 15%, 5.65% inflation and dollar at $ 5.99 at the end of 2025.
Serasa’s latest data show that 6.9 million companies ended last year in default, which equals 31.6% of all Brazilian companies. Micro and small businesses represent the vast majority of negatives, with 6.5 million CNPJs.
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Obstacles for SMEs in 2025
With the Central Bank’s monetary tightening to control inflation, as well as more expensive, credit is also less and less accessible. Small businesses are seen as banks risky, who want less and less risk while the macroeconomic scenario is deteriorating.
In a report, the Moody’s risk rating agency says that “the most risky loan originations will decrease by 2025, especially for small and medium enterprises”, which will overload the reimbursement capacity of credit borrowers.
The granting of credit grew 11% in 2024 and reached a record level, but Abdelmalack explains that the result was pulled by a slightly less restrictive Selic throughout the first half and employment and still warm economic activity. “For 2025, the scenario seems different, we do not expect sudden movement, but less credit growth, around 8%,” says the economist.
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Last week, the Central Bank’s Financial Stability Committee (Comef) recommended “additional caution and diligence” in the granting of credit.
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High interest also aims to curb consumption, another factor that can directly impact smaller companies. Families will have less access to financing for larger purchases and everyday spending are still hindered by the high prices.
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“It is possible for families to better select what will be a priority in this scenario; Companies need to innovate to stay competitive, ”says Thiago Pinotti, Accessustage’s director of financial operations.
According to the National Confederation of Commerce of Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC), consumers are more cautious in hiring debts when they realize a worsening of income commitment. One showed that 15.9% of the population considered it to be “very indebted” in January, compared to 15.4% in December, and 20.8% of Brazilians allocated more than half of debt income, the largest percentage since May 2024.
Another risk factor is in the company’s debt profile. According to Serasa, each MPE had, on average, 6.9 late accounts in December last year.
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What to do in the midst of turbulence?
According to Serasa economist, one way to relieve liabilities throughout 2025 is to negotiate payment deadlines with suppliers. It is the first step in organizing accounts before you need to resort to expensive loans.
But if the SME solution is in bank credit, choosing anticipation of receivables may be advantageous at the lower cost. Camila Abdelmalack says this credit “is not as costly as a loan to working capital, but attention to financial management is needed not to become hostage to this instrument.”
The capital market can also be a way for small companies. Pinotti cites FIDCs (Credit Rights Investment Funds) as financing options. They buy the debts of the companies, which receive a payment in advance that would only have some time later, something that can give the company breath. The director of AccessStage says that these funds “had a relevant pickup last year and have a large volume of money allocated in this kind of need.”
Finally, Abdelmalack says that in this challenging scenario it is essential to know the factors that can affect your business. “The entrepreneur should know how gearbox, inflation and other variables impact its operation.” For her, “financial planning is the way to avoid worsening the consequences of the current economic framework.”
