In a possible second round in the 2026 presidential election, the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), would beat President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) in three states, besides being numerically ahead of the petista in two others . The data are from Genial/Quaest research released on Wednesday (26).
The survey evaluated five possible second -round scenarios in eight states of the country.
The margin of error in seven of these states is three percentage pointsfor more or less. In São Paulo, she is two percentage pointsfor more or less. The confidence level of the research is 95%.
Lula (PT) x Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans)
São Paulo
- Lula (PT): 30%
- Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 54%
- Undecided: 2%
- White/null/will not vote: 14%
*Error margin: 2 percentage points
Minas Gerais
- Lula (PT): 37%
- Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 40%
- Undecided: 3%
- White/null/won’t vote: 20%
*Error margin: 3 percentage points
Rio de Janeiro
- Lula (PT): 39%
- Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 35%
- Undecided: 2%
- White/null/won’t vote: 24%
*Error margin: 3 percentage points
Bahia
- Lula (PT): 59%
- Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 25%
- Undecided: 2%
- White/null/will not vote: 14%
*Error margin: 3 percentage points
Paraná
- Lula (PT): 30%
- Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 46%
- Undecided: 4%
- White/null/won’t vote: 20%
*Error margin: 3 percentage points
Rio Grande do Sul
- Lula (PT): 36%
- Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 41%
- Undecided: 3%
- White/null/won’t vote: 20%
*Error margin: 3 percentage points
Pernambuco
- Lula (PT): 58%
- Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 26%
- Undecided: 2%
- White/null/will not vote: 14%
*Error margin: 3 percentage points
Goiás
- Lula (PT): 29%
- Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 46%
- Undecided: 4%
- White/null/won’t vote: 21%
*Error margin: 3 percentage points
Update
