The president of Argentina, Javier Milei. / Cristina Sille/ DPA
On Friday, February 14, Javier Mileithe eccentric president of Argentinapromoted in its X (former Twitter) account a new cryptocurrency that promised high yields and that, shortly after, ended up collapsing in a typical “rug pull” scheme, leaving a. It did not matter that Milei erased the tweet and then unfolds from its original promotion. The Peronist opposition He quickly leaned to request a process of political judgment To dismiss it in the middle of a scenario in which even Milei supporters have criticized him for the scandal.
The question that many analysts are asked in Argentina and in the world is what impact this scandal will have on the Milei government stability. After all, the context for survival in the position of Milei Lucía very dark at the beginning of his mandate. With the months, it has established itself in office, but the scandal is certainly a blow to the flotation line of the .
The scandal: Milei does not come out
More seasoning joined the controversy when the full version of an interview that the president gave to an Argentine media in which his defense looked blurred was known. Not just that. The creator of the cryptocurrency Hayden Mark Davisacknowledged having paid to, a considerable sum of money, and even presumed this link among their investors to convince them to put money. In the last hours, the case took even more relevance after the businessman’s complaint Charles Hoskinsonco -founder of Ethereum, who announced that some of the leaders behind $LIBRA They would have asked for money in exchange for facilitating a meeting with Milei, as the Argentine media La Nación announced.
With his front style, Milei granted an interview with the political scientist and journalist Jonatan Viale. However, the problem is not only in their statements, but in what happened behind the cameras: before its broadcast. The filtration of this order generated even more controversy, leaving a Control attempt at content. Regardless of what has been eliminated, the sown doubt made Milei be able to overcome the crisis quickly.
Milei survival in office
Political literature on Presidential stabilitysuggests, in the first place, that the existence of a Legislative majority that supports the president emerges as a critical element, since it allows him to govern without significant obstacles and reduces the risk of premature output of the position. Secondly, the occurrence of mass protestsespecially when they are violent and directed specifically against the president, and REconomic ecessions have proven to be a destabilizing factor which significantly increases the risk of an early exit of power.
In light of the above, the first thing that should be considered is that mercy is in a position No majority in Congress. In addition, beyond the internal struggles and current difficultiesPeronism – known for its deep links with civil society and its ability to mobilize protests – represents a significant challenge for the presidency of Milei. Without the support of a strong party structure, Milei is vulnerable to attacks from the legislative and street protests. The economic situation, meanwhile, does not play in favor of the Argentine president. The above, however, does not represent all the obstacles that the Argentine President must face.
February 14 and cryptogate: another risk factor
Until February 13, the Asisto that played the most in favor Milei’s survival was the fact that he had not been involved in scandals. In fact, specialized literature identifies the presidential scandals as a key factor to explain the anticipated term of a presidency. Abdalá Bucaram (Ecuador), Fernando de la Rúa (Argentina), Fernando Lugo (Paraguay) and Pedro Pablo Kuczynsky (Peru) are clear examples of Presidents “Failed” (or failed) whose administrations were beaten by Important scandals.
These scandals make the presidents find problems that their political allies They support it, making it more Vulnerable to attempts to dismiss. This is precisely the case of the Argentine president.
Why is this not a scandal for Milei?
He hits Milei in the two pillars on which he built his candidacy: his Criticism of corruption caused by the “caste” and its supposed economic-financial expertise. If you consciously promoted a fraudulent scheme like $ Libra, He betrayed his promise to fight corruption and unmask “caste.” If, on the other hand, he was deceived, his closeness with a fraud of this magnitude exposes a worrying Lack of criteria.
As economist that he boasts of his financial knowledge, it is alarming that he has not detected the investment risks that promoted. Either by dishonesty or incompetenceMilei has eroded his own credibility and undermined the basis of trust that led him to power. In a way, Milei validated that Markets are not regulated alonedemonstrating in fraction of minutes that less than 280 characters were able to destroy richness of hundreds of investors.
The opposition has expressed its intention to initiate a political judgment against the president. However, according to recent history, it is not likely that this is the mechanism to evict Milei. In Argentinalos two “failed” presidents In the post-dictatorship they left office for popular pressures And in the midst of an important socio -political crisis; Not by political trial. This process is usually activated against judges, not against first leaders.
However, this does not mean that a scandal like this is harmless. Latin American history is full of presidents who saw their mandate truncated by scandals that eroded their legitimacy. Bucaram and Kuczynski They were quickly forced to leave office after knowing each other scandals that involved them; while in cases of Lugo and De la Rúathe scandals generated a progressive loss of support until another Crisis Politics He left them without exit.
Milei’s case is still under development, but the question is inevitable: will this scandal be the trigger for a rapid implosion, Bucaram style or kuczynski, or the first blow of a slower wear that ends up undermining its power, as happened with From the Rúa and Lugo? The fragility of its coalition and the growing opposition pressure will define its destiny.
Final reflections
In light of the facts and the recent political history of Argentina, It is possible that Milei manages to overcome this crisis. However, His power will be weakenedsince it depends largely on public perception about its ability to manage the country’s economy. His popularity has been based on his Inflation managementbut in a matter of minutes it was evident that as it has a recipe to reduce inflation, it also has a recipe to bring to light Market gaps.
