The variation of 0.3 percentage point in the unemployment rate In the quarter ended in January is a reflection of seasonality, due to temporary vacancies of the year and the discharge of the basic interest rate, evaluate economists heard by CNN.
The unemployment rate advanced at 6.5% between November and December 2024 and January 2025, according to National Household Sample Survey (PNAD). O Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) released the data on the morning of Thursday (27).
Bruno Imaizumi, Economist at LCA 4intelligence, says that the up unemployment rate are common in the first three months of the year due to the closing of temporary occupations hired for parties, such as Christmas and New Year.
“It must be remembered that the research is a quarterly moving average. So, leave October, which usually has many hires, and comes in January, which usually has a reduction in occupations due to temporary year -end workers, ”he said.
For Rafael Perez, an economist at Suno Research, sectors more dependent on credit and family consumption begin to feel the effects of the Central Bank’s contractionist monetary policy.
“Just think that the entrepreneur today looks at the future and sees no prospects for great improvement in the economy, due to a much higher Selic and a fall in demand. Then he has probably started hiring less or even firing more, ”said Perez.
In the reading of Renan Pieri, professor of economics at FGV EAESP, job creation points to signs of unemployment rate stabilization throughout this first semester due to the proximity of the “job creation limit” by the labor market.
“The country has undergone a process of strong job growth, but this movement slowed down. This does not mean that we are in an economic crisis, but that the labor market may have reached a close limit to full employment, ”he concluded.
