Ukraine: Trump turns out to foreign policy – security guarantees and rewards

“This agreement can be a great success or just disappear. This will depend on our talks with President Trump, “the Ukrainian president explained that he intends to ask Trump directly if he is going to stop helping Ukraine. “My question will be straight: Will the United States stop help or not? And if it will no longer help, can we buy weapons? “

The agreement, in its current form, will not include explicit security guarantees to prevent Russian aggression. The White House has argued that the existence of US financial interests should be enough for Ukraine, which is facing a harsh reality: the United States wants to be paid in return for their help in the country’s defense against an invader.

“What better could Ukraine have than an economic cooperation with the United States?” Mike Waltz, a US National Security Advisor on Friday, said on Friday.

The NATO and other allies have long demanded to contribute more to their own defense. However, the agreement on minerals would represent an escalation in its approach, based on foreign policy trading. The United States was once considered the “policeman” of the world, but for many analysts now they look more like a mafia leader who only blackmails.

Security guarantees have a tacit price

The explicit requirement for Ukraine’s mineral wealth, while the country is in dire straits, “is reminiscent of blackmailing,” said Virginia Page Fojna, a political scientist at Columbia University and a specialist in peacekeeping agreements.

Steven A. Cook, a senior associate at the Foreign Relations Council, referred to Wallz’s statement that “economic cooperation” with the United States would ensure Ukraine’s security.

Experts cannot remember a previous time where the United States or any other country demanded money or resources from their allies during war. They argue that Trump’s diplomacy sends a message to the allies that the United States is not a reliable partner to help their friends or meet their obligations. At the same time, he reports to his opponents that he is willing to abandon the long -term strategic interests for short -term profits, experts say.

Speaking to the Oval Office on Friday, Trump said: “Either we will sign an agreement or there will be many problems with them.”

With the demand for Ukraine to deliver its mineral wealth, Trump openly expresses a diplomatic truth that usually remains untold: that security guarantees often have a tacit price. But according to experts, his approach represents a radical deviation from traditional American foreign policy.

There are many cases in which the United States has used their military power to protect US financial interests. For example, ensuring access to oil was a central pillar of US politics in the Middle East, with the most striking example of the first Gulf war when the US defended Kuwait from Iraq’s invasion.

The message to the allies: ‘Pay me’

According to Maggie Huberman, Trump’s leadership model appears to be based on figures such as Mid Esposito, a powerful factor in Brooklyn’s democratic machine, who controlled appointments and ruled with a “iron fist”. In the political machine, every decision is essentially an opportunity for political leaders to reap benefits for themselves and their supporters, while the demand for more exchanges marks more power.

However, experts in international relations point out that foreign policy does not work in this way. In international relations, credibility is a crucial element of power. Apry depends on whether a country adheres to its promises. Without this credibility, enemy states are more likely to test the limits.

It is no longer clear which countries the Trump government considers girlfriends and which opponents. However, in any case, its actions also send a clear message: that the United States is, at best, an unreliable and expensive ally – and, at worst, that they will exploit the dependence of any country as weakness, according to experts.

“What we are seeing is a successful strategy in the short term and a devastating strategy in the long run,” said Joseph Nai, a political scientist at the Kennedy Governance School of Harvard, who introduced the term “mild power”.

A coercive, conflicting approach such as that of Trump may, in theory, be effective in posting short -term concessions, Nai said. Canada and Mexico promised to increase border security and enhance the law on fentanyl law, thus gaining a 30 -day suspension of duties.

But in the long run, countries that are now the United States partners in trade and foreign policy now have a strong incentive to seek closer relations with countries such as China.

In Europe, there is already a tendency to increase military spending to reduce dependence on the United States, which could have unpredictable consequences. Turkey, which has the second largest army in NATO, could turn into a more important regional force.

The message to enemies: ‘Let’s close a deal’

Analysts say Trump’s foreign policy sends a message to Russia and other hostile states: that the United States is willing to prioritize the short -term economic benefit over their wider long -term interests.

Or, perhaps, the United States could simply be redeemed by a better offer. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that the fossil agreement between the US and Ukraine is not concerned because Russia has “significantly more resources of this kind from Ukraine”. He also said he was ready to “offer” mineral resources to US partners, including those in the “new areas” of Russia in eastern Ukraine.

The President of the Congo People’s Republic, Felix Tsekendi, perhaps realizing that US support is now available to those who can pay, recently proposed a mineral agreement with the United States, offering access to strategic metals such as Coltan and Coaicimus.

Reduced reliability of the United States could encourage China to test US commitment to defend Taiwan or areas in the southern Chinese sea. This could endanger the US long -term partners and increase the risk of the United States involved in a devastating war with China.