President of the United States sings victory with the mineral agreement, but perhaps it will not earn that much according to analysts
Donald Trump has confirmed that he will meet with the Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington on Friday to sign the agreement. “We are working very well with Russia and Ukraine,” said the US president during his first cabinet meeting on Wednesday at the White House. “President Zelensky will come on Friday, is now confirmed.” And Trump also said he and Zelensky will “sign an agreement, which will be a very big deal.”
A result that makes Trump “happy”. “We have managed to reach an agreement where we will receive our money back and we will receive a lot of money in the future, and I think this is right,” said the president of the United States.
Less happy was Zelensky. The Ukrainian President said he hopes that this US mineral agreement “leads to other agreements,” but confirmed that no American security guarantees have not yet been agreed and referred to the text as another “work base.” A phrase about safety guarantees for Ukraine and it is important to be there, ”said Zelensky, adding that” it is too early to talk about values. “
“If we get safety guarantees, we will not have a ceasefire, nothing will work, nothing,” Zelensky added to the BBC. The hope of the Ukrainian President is that if the agreement on the minerals is signed, the two parties can “immediately” new negotiations about what is being called “background”.
Already Trump does not seem to consider that it is necessary to give any guarantee. “We will be there, therefore, there will be automatic security, because no one will get into our people when we are there,” he said in response to a journalist who asked him what kind of security guarantees would be willing to give as part of the agreement with Ukraine. He added, “I won’t give security guarantees. Let’s ask Europe to do it, because Europe is the neighbor on the side.”
“This is Trump’s classic diplomatic model: extracting advantages from allies and not allies without offering real guarantees,” says Manuel Serrano, an expert in international relations. In his opinion, the US President is operating “a radical change in relation to what relations between the US, Europe and Ukraine were.” “It’s all because of my interest. You are willing to do but only if it’s beneficial to him,” he explains.
“This is transactional diplomacy par excellence,” says the analyst to CNN Portugal.
“Zelensky lamented the fact that there are no guarantees of robust security from the US, and stressed that economic support is one thing, military support is different. Zelensky’s goal is to ensure continuous US support to ensure that US involvements in the region is real and not just economic,” says Manuel Serrano. “But the US just want to stay for the economic part. AndM Washington argue that the financial interest in Ukraine resources is already a commitmentIlitar Claro. ”
“The first version was maximalist. It was a total submission of Ukraine. And this is also a strategy used by Trump: presenting a first text with many requirements, for later. This second version is more acceptable,” explains Manuel Serrano.
Afonso Azevedo Neves, a political communication expert, agrees that this is “a natural strategy in Trump: he considers that a good deal is one in which he wins and the other part loses. Most of us when negoceia tries to find ways to compensate and give in to both glorious. He always wants to win,”. “There is no medium and long term vision. It is very difficult to establish business relationships with historical allies or new allies based on a negotiation strategy in which only one of the parties wins.”
André Júdice Gloria doubts, however, that this agreement represents a real victory for the US: “More important than money is the appearance of victory. No one believes there are $ 500 billion of mineral reserves in rare land in Ukraine, Geological Survey itself does not list Ukraine as having rare land reserves. Dollars, therefore, the number he has shot up to the 500 billion table is for US domestic consumption, to look like it is getting something back, ” “For Zelensky, part of the initial resistance was to think that Ukraine could have to pay $ 500 billion for 50, 60, 70 years. Without that, Zelensky can give Trump a victory without really giving in to Ukraine.”
There is still much to clarify what the mineral agreement involves effectively and where it can drive. According to Manuel Serrano, the mineral agreement “is in line with the growing interest that US administration has revealed in strategic resources”. “But there are two questions: 40% of Ukraine mineral reserves are in Russian -occupied territories, and on the other hand, the agreement does not take into account the commercial dispute with China, which dominates the trade of these materials.” These are two points that can disturb Donald Trump’s accounts. What will happen to the minerals that are in the territories occupied by the Russians? This depends on the mineral agreement, but also the peace negotiations that have not yet started.
Russia has not yet commented. Kremlin said he would only comment when there was official information about this agreement.
