The Kremlin wants to turn the invasion of Ukraine changing its strategy that, although Russia still intends to capture the provinces of Zaporiyia, Donetsk, Luhansk y JersónI would be looking for Alternatives to military media. Instead of continuing with the military offensive, I would bet on the political pressure and negotiations.
“Russian advances have recently stagnated on the front line, and Russian forces face more and more losses unsustainable of vehicles and personnel, indicating that It is likely that they cannot occupy the total extension of these provinces by military means In a short period of time, if they succeed, “explains the ISW.
Therefore, Russia could be forced to adopt the road diplomaticas already tried to do through the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Sergei Lavrovwho led the Russian delegation in that of February 18 in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia. “Lavrov’s rhetoric is probably an attempt to achieve through negotiations what the Russian army cannot achieve by force”add the institution.
Although the troops of Vladimir Putin change its strategy, the ISW warns that Russia will continue to resort to oppression tactics, forced displacement and assimilation until you get captured Three key cities that following being controlled by Ukraine: Zaporiyia , Jerson and Kramatorsk. The Kremlin insists that any peace agreement must be based on the demands of 2021, which include the annexation of these areas.
“The Russian occupation of such large population centers would significantly intensify the humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine. The Russian authorities would probably use against Ukrainian civilians who live in these areas the same tactics of oppression, displacement and forced assimilation that they have used against the millions of Ukrainians who have been living under Russian occupation for more than three years, “warns the ISW.
