It has been showing greater maturity after accelerated development in the last eight years. The relocation and the repracification of assets have been dynamic, responding to the interaction between resource borrowers and investors, due to the macroeconomic scenario.
The high environment, besides being a natural stress test, brought attractiveness to fixed income modalities, with variable income markets and hybrid actives acting in reverse.
Last year, fixed income securities emissions, which pay an income to the investor in exchange for borrowed capital, totaled 6% of GDP, triple from the observed in 2016, when emissions reached 2% of GDP. On the other hand, we left a peak of 2% of the GDP of primary and secondary emissions of stock in 2020 to close 2024 with only 0.2% of GDP. In hybrid assets, such as real estate funds and Fiagro, in which they invest in shares of participation, the contraction was 0.8% to 0.4% of GDP in the same period.
It is curious to see a great willingness of the firms to perform new emissions, despite interest on historically high levels. To understand this, it is worth looking at the market as a whole.
Spreads of new debenture emissions encouraged (exempt from income tax) were greatly reduced last year, a reflection of an increase in demand for these securities greater than supply. There were cases of low -risk companies, where the cost of catchment was below the cost of sovereign emissions (treasury), whose papers are considered free of credit risk. This demand came largely for a record net funding of fixed income funds (R $ 243 billion), which migrated from multimarket funds (-R $ 356 billion) and shares (-r $ 10 billion). The new debenture emissions totaled R $ 470 billion in 2024, of which 28.5% were attracted to encouraged.
In other words, the investor chose to migrate from higher risk assets (multimarkets/shares) to perceived assets as more controlled (corporate debts and credit funds). This is also noticeable due to the lack of capital openings on the stock exchange over the past three years. It is worth highlighting the interest in the Funds of Credit Rights (FDICS), which act as securitization vehicles, that is, the transformation of these receivables from companies into market -negotiable investment products. Securitization thus allows anticipating future funds of resources, with a discount rate. The FDICs raised R $ 16 billion in 2024.
On the one hand, this implies greater competition in fundraising, with greater product diversity, which makes room for bank capital to deepen the credit to individuals or smaller companies. Additionally, the expansion of credit provider agents increases the economic capacity to distribute risks, gradually dissipating individual risks. At this point, there have been major advances with companies focused on these special or stressed (defaulted) credits, with specialization in their recovery.
On the other hand, this new distribution will demand even more maturity on the part of investors, as the credit market as a whole is even less liquid than the stock market, so that fluctuations have more significant implications for household portfolios. Looking only at fixed lace backgrounds and FDICs, they today total about 36% of GDP in stock. 15 years ago, this number was 20%.
In this sense, there is already some movement in the back industry seeking to anticipate these fluctuations. Today, free credit funds, with no limits for exposure to private papers, are retaining about 17.5% cash. That is, they have sought to maintain some liquidity to face unexpected events. Thus, in the face of a more significant movement of redemptions, there is a mattress prepared to avoid selling less liquid assets at prices that at these occasions are often disadvantageous. A probable learning occurred with events from early 2023, when the market reproved risks, corrected Spreads, but went on.
The Brazilian capital market has undergone a significant transformation, consolidating itself as a robust and efficient alternative to traditional bank financing. The expansion of corporate debt emissions, the maturation of investors and the diversification of credit agents demonstrate a more resilient and sophisticated financial ecosystem. With increasing competition in capturing, technology adoption, advances in regulation and self -regulating and the necessary risk management improvement, Brazil will be able to advance to a scenario in which the capital market has an increasingly central role in financing economic development.
Looking to the future, this evolution paves the way for greater resource allocation efficiency, new investment opportunities and a more dynamic and affordable financial environment, strengthening the basis for sustained growth.
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