North America has stopped being a free trade zone. The president of the United States, Donald Trump, decided to skip the treaty he negotiated and signed to govern commercial relations with his two neighbors: Mexico and Canada. With fentanil as a mere pretext, since Tuesday the United States from those countries, allies and friends, and somewhat lower, of 20% to the products of its great geostrategic rival, China. With this, Trump of North America and opens an era of uncertainty very badly received by the market. Warren Buffett, the most prestigious investor in the United States, referred to tariffs on Monday as “an act of war.” Wall Street suffered its worst session of the year.
Trump’s threats and his team that the market did not expect that 25%tariffs really begin to apply. That explains the earthquake lived in the markets with the simple confirmation that what was announced would be fulfilled. The Nasdaq suffered a 2.6%setback, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 1.8%. The Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso quoted down. Asian bags also opened with strong falls.
The proposed tariffs have entered into force at 0.01 hours in the east of the United States (6.01 in peninsular Spain). Customs authorities tariffs are the highest between the United States, Mexico and Canada in many decades. Its entrance distorts supplies chains and will make the prices of equipment goods, raw materials, industrial and consumer products, including foods that cross the border. The hopes of a last minute agreement were shown vain and what remains now is to wait quantum time are maintained in force.
With tariffs, the United States hurts its neighbors, but also shoots in the foot. The protectionist measures of the world’s first economy can cause Mexico and Canada to enter recession. At the same time, the mismanagement of commercial policy by Trump is causing the US economy to lose bellows. Inflation expectations have been triggered, consumers’ confidence has fallen, the commercial deficit has run out of export acceleration and several indicators point to economic weakening. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank even points to a contraction of the American Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of the year.
The commercial war also deteriorates diplomatic relations between the two countries, which have struggled to try to prevent tariffs from entering into force. They achieved a postponement of a month in February after assuming a series of commitments, but promises and efforts of greater draft have not served this time to change their mind to Trump, whose decisions seem to be governed by the whim and arbitrariness.
That fentanyl is just a pretext was quite clear once again in Trump’s appearance of Trump’s Monday in the White House Roosevelt. “What they have to do is build their car plants, frankly, and other things in the United States, in which case they have no tariffs,” he said. “They would be much better building here, because we have the market. We are the market where they sell the most, ”he insisted.
The president also granted a kind of vindictive character. “Tariffs are easy, fast, efficient and contribute equity,” he said. “It will be very expensive for people to take advantage of this country. They cannot come and steal our money and our jobs and take our factories and our businesses and expect not to be punished, and are being punished with tariffs. ” added.
The treatment that the president of the United States is dispensed to Canada the boycott of American products and retaliation measures return to the fore. In Mexico, frustration also spreads after the efforts of all kinds to satisfy the powerful border state.
“Canada will not let this unjustified decision be unanswered”, “if US tariffs come into force tonight, Canada will respond (…) with 25% tariff [unos 107.000 millones de dólares estadounidenses] In American products, starting immediately with tariffs over 30,000 million dollars in products and applying tariffs on the remaining 125,000 million in American products within 21 days. Our tariffs will remain in force until the commercial action of the United States is withdrawn, and in the event that US tariffs do not cease, we are in active and continuous conversations with the provinces and territories to apply several non -tariff measures, ”he added.
“Due to tariffs imposed by the United States, Americans will pay more for food, gasoline and cars, and potentially lose thousands of jobs. Tariffs will disturb an incredibly successful commercial relationship. They will violate the same commercial agreement that was negotiated by President Trump in his previous term, ”said Trudeau.
The president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, dawned on Monday waiting to see what Trump would say. “It is a decision that depends on the United States government, on the president of the United States,” he said before the announcement of US President. “So whatever your decision, we will make our decisions and there is a plan, there is unity in Mexico,” he added. Late in Monday afternoon he summoned his closest team for the response he will give this Tuesday at his Mañanera conference. Until the last moment Sheinbaum has tried to maintain a phone call with Trump, which has not been achieved.
Commercial imbalance
Tariffs to Mexico, Canada and China are only the beginning of a large -scale commercial war with which the United States wants to reduce its commercial deficit. In 2024, the United States bought goods outside of 3.29 billion dollars and exported goods worth 2.08 billion. Of the total goods, 41%, about 1.35 billion, came from Mexico, Canada and China. Those three countries concentrated almost half of the commercial imbalance of the world’s first economy.
Mexico is the main supplier of the United States, the country has taken advantage of privileged access to the US market that has so far provided the treaty between the United States, Mexico and Canada (TMEC or USMCA) imports from the southern neighbor marked a historical maximum of 505,851 million dollars, compared to 475,216 million 2023. Although US exports also increased from the United States with Mexico marked a new record of 171,189 million dollars.
Although China has lost its position as the main supplier, the level has been reduced with respect to the 2018 record figures, when Trump declared him the commercial war, but remains very high. The United States imported goods from China for 438,947 million dollars, but only exported to the Asian country merchandise for 143,546 million, so that the commercial deficit was 295,402 million.
With Canada, the commercial imbalance is lower and far from the record of 78,192 million of 2022. Even so, Trump has lashed out again and again against his northern neighbor, despising as unnecessary the products that cross the border. In 2024, Canada exported goods to the United States for the amount of 412,696 million dollars, while crossing the border in the opposite direction of merchandise for 349,360 million dollars. With this, the commercial deficit stood at 63,336 million, 1.5% less than the previous year, always according to the data of the Office of Economic Analysis, under the Commerce Department.
The protectionist measures, however, will not be limited to those three countries. Trump has the European Union in the spotlight from its first term. He erroneously insists on assessing VAT as a protectionist and discriminatory measure against US products and the fault of the deficit in goods exchanges (which is largely compensated in the balance of services).
The president in theory, involves taxing other countries with the same tariffs with which they tax US products. In practice, they are at Trump’s arbitration. In fact, before waiting for the calculations,
The fate for everyone. The United States will take into account not only tariff levels, but also non -tariff barriers, including regulatory, monetary, fiscal or other. Lutnick has committed to although Trump prefers to act as of April 2 because 1 is the day of the innocent. The concept of reciprocal tariffs breaks with the rules of the World Trade Organization and its most favored nation clause.
Trump also approved a decree in which he threatens countries that have a Google rate (among them Spain) with commercial and fiscal reprisals. It even stir the threat of tariffs without specifying the European Union (and also to the United Kingdom) if they demand political networks of moderation of content that fight misinformation and hate discourse.
Sector tariffs
Trump has approved that, in principle, they enter into force on March 12. The president has implied that these tariffs would superimpose those corresponding to each country. Thus, for example, Mexican steel and aluminum would become hypothetically taxed with 50%. Trump has ordered to open an investigation to study if he also imposes tariffs. On Saturday, he also ordered the Department of Commerce to investigate the damage to national security that means wood imports, laying the legal basis for new tariffs, which seem directed to Canada.
25% look like Trump’s tariff magic figure. It is also not clear when they enter into force, if they collect exceptions or if they overlap other geographical tariffs, such as reciprocal or those planned for Mexico and Canada.
This Monday, Trump announced that he will impose tariffs without quantifying food products since April 2. But in reality most of its food imports come from Mexico and Canada. Will both tariffs overcome? There is nothing clear. In fact, as the message is written, it could even be interpreted as export tariffs: “To the great farmers of the United States: prepare to start producing many agricultural products to sell within the United States. Tariffs will apply to external products on April 2. Have fun! ”Trump wrote.
The president announced a few weeks ago from the Oval Office of the White House that one of those dates that occasionally launches somewhat arbitrary without being clear to what they obey. It arrived on February 18 and nothing happened. Trump has barely talked about oil and gas tariffs again.
