After the storm comes calm and after yesterday’s breakdown, this Wednesday, European stock markets recover the bullish tone. In the Spanish parquet, the rise about 2% after losing 2.55% yesterday (corrected 341 points) until it was 13,031 points before the commercial war and the uncertainty for the situation of Ukraine attached to the fear of a weaker economic activity in the United States. For its part, the euro is still up and exceeds 1.06 dollars.
The main European indexes quote positively. The Dax of Germany recovers more than 2.5% also encouraged by the Government Agreement, after the agreement reached by the German parties that will be part of the new government coalition of the country: the CDU and the SPD, an agreement that serves to relax fiscal regulations and create two funds for investment in defense and infrastructure. On the other hand, the CAC of Paris and the FTSE of London advance 1.7% and 0.6%. As to the Italian FTSE, the profits are 1.7%.
Although most of the selective adds positions today. The greatest advances are for the steel sector, with Arceormittal (8.1%) and Acerinox (5.8%) at the head. Banks also accumulate important revaluation. CaixaBank goes from 4.2% while Santander, Bankinter, Sabadell and BBVA actions advance between 3.7% and 3%.
The arms sector is still among investor favorites: Indra’s shares are revalued more than 4%.
What do the rest of the bags do?
In Asia, China maintains its growth target of approximately 5% by 2025. The Nikkei rises to 0.1%, Hong Kong Hang Sang wins 2.8% and Shanghai Composite records 0.5%.
It ended in red after the imposition of Trump’s tariffs. The Dow Jones dropped 1.55%, the S&P 500 yielded 1.22%and Nasdaq lost 0.35%. Several companies warned that the commercial war will result in an increase in costs that will end up impacting consumer prices.
KEYS OF THE DAY
- The president of the United States, Donald Trump, has ruled his first speech before a joint session of the Congress in his second term, in which. These statements come after the 25% tariffs have entered into force to Mexico and Canada, as well as the increase in tariffs to China from 10% to 20%. Trump has announced that reciprocal tariffs will impose from April 2, after Chinese and Canadian authorities have announced measures in retaliation.
- In Europe there are numerous macroeconomic references: on the one hand, the PMI indicators of services in the euro zone, in addition to the production price index in the region. On the other, retail sales and the final GDP of Italy and the industrial production of France.
- In the US, the weekly mortgage requests, factory orders and lasting goods of January, the compound PMI and the non -manufacturing ISM of February, the Beige book of the Fed, which will serve to prepare the next meeting of March 19, where no changes, and the Non -Agricultural Employment Survey ADP.
- In Asia the PMI of services of Japan and the PMI compound Caixin of China of February is expected.
- China prioritizes consumer spending over industrial technology and production. The report of the Chinese Prime Minister, Li Qiang, presented on Wednesday at the annual meeting of the country’s Parliament on the main tasks by 2025 promised a “special action plan” to vigorously boost consumption and stimulate domestic demand, while the country sets a growth target of approximately 5% by 2025.
What do analysts say?
Federated Hermes analysts do not believe that “aggressive tariffs in Mexico remain in force for a long time, given the substantial inflation impact they would have on the US economy.” They hope that some type of tariff will be imposed, but not that 25%persists. “If they persist, they would almost invariably lead the Mexican economy to the recession. External mattresses in Mexico are solid and the debt/GDP ratio is moderate. ” They foresee a risk of limited default, “but the next 12 months can be negative from the economic point of view,” they say. As for China, “moderate retaliation suggests that Beijing is open to negotiations and expects US farmers, who are Trump’s key supporters, can influence their decisions.”
The fintech Ebury does not see sufficient indications that can alter the path of types established by the ECB, and consequently provides for another 25 basic points in April, in addition to this week’s meeting. “Although the evolution of growth has been relatively encouraging lately, and we observe that inflation remains high, we do not believe it is sufficient to alter the course of the types. If the ECB suggests that a cut in April can occur and points to the possibility of types below 2% throughout this year, we could see some weakness in the euro on Thursday, ”the firm analysts point out.
The head of fixed income and fund manager of Ibercaja Management, Cristina Gavín, said that “Trump’s tariff threats to Europe and the forecasts of increase in defense expenditure anticipate an elevation of inflationary predictions in the euro area that can stop the downstream path (interest rates) carried out so far.”
Pedro del Pozo, director of Mutuality Investments: “The context of uncertainty exceeds, with much, any forecast that we could have done, three or four months ago.” That is carrying, for example, “to a remarkable reduction in the year of the number of corporate operations, in North America. And, of course, to the main American stock market indices are making it significantly worse than European. ”
What is the evolution of debt, currencies and raw materials?
It shows and exceeds $ 1.06, reaching a maximum of almost four months after German political parties agreed an infrastructure fund of 500,000 million euros. The US dollar is around a minimum of three months compared to its main peers.
The oil, reference in Europe, falls below $ 71 a barrel.
The 10 -year Spanish bonus yield rises 2% to 3.230%.
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