Paraná research done in the state also points out the victory of the president against Tarcisio if the 2026 elections were today
Paraná Research released on Wednesday (5.mar.2025) a survey that points to a technical draw between the president (PT) and the former president (PL) in Rio Grande do Norte, if the 2026 presidential elections were today.
According to the survey, Lula has 35.2% of voting intentions, while Bolsonaro records 30.5%. With the error margin of 2.9 percentage points for more or less, the 2 are technically tied. They are followed by the former governor of Ceará, Ciro Gomes (PDT), the singer (without party) and the governor of Goiás, (União Brasil).
Here’s the 1st Stimulated Scenario:
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) – 35,2%;
- Jair Bolsonaro (PL) – 30,5%;
- Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 13,6%;
- Gusttavo Lima (without party) – 6,8%;
- Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) — 1,7%;
- white/null – 7,1%;
- They don’t know – 5,0%.
The survey interviewed 1,220 voters in 59 municipalities from February 18 to 21, 2025, reaching a 95% degree of confidence for an estimated margin of error of approximately 2.9 percentage points for general results. Read A (PDF – 454 KB).
LULA X MICHELLE
In a 2nd scenario, Lula would beat former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) in Rio Grande do Norte. The petista would have 35.7% of voting intentions, while it would reach 24.3%.
Here’s the 2nd stimulated scenario:
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) – 35,7%;
- Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) – 24,3%;
- Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 16,0%;
- Gusttavo Lima (without party) – 8,3%;
- Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) — 2,7%;
- white/null – 8,0%;
- They don’t know – 5,1%.
Lula x Tarcisio
In a scenario against the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), Lula would also win in Rio Grande do Norte. The petista would have 35.5% of voting intentions, while Tarcisio would record 17.3%.
Here’s the 3rd stimulated scenario:
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) – 35,5%;
- Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) – 17,3%;
- Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 17,1%;
- Gusttavo Lima (without party) – 11,1%;
- Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) — 2,1%;
- white/null – 10,7%;
- They don’t know – 6,1%.
