Research from the Institute, in partnership with the Bloombergpoints out that, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) continues to lead voting intentions for the 2026 presidential elections.
However, the survey, released on Friday (7), shows that the governor of São Paulo, (PL), emerges as a competitive rival, drawing technically with Lula in an eventual second round.
In the first round, in one of the tested scenarios, Lula has 41.6% of voting intentions, followed by Tarcisio with 32.3%. No other candidate exceeds 5%. Check out the numbers:
- Lula: 41,6%
- Tarcísio de Freitas: 32.3%
- Gusttavo Lima: 4.6%
- Ronaldo Caiado: 4.6%
- Romeu Low: 4.5%
- Simone Tebet: 3.2%
- Pablo Marçal: 2.5%
- Eduardo Leite: 1.5%
- Marina Silva: 1.2%
- I don’t know / white / null: 4%
When Tarcisio’s name is replaced by another candidate linked to pockets, such as federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL), Lula’s advantage expands. Check out the numbers for this scenario:
- Lula: 41,5%
- Eduardo Bolsonaro: 23.8%
- Romeu Low: 10%
- Ronaldo Caiado: 6.4%
- Gusttavo Lima: 4.1%
- Simone Tebet: 3.4%
- Pablo Marçal: 3.2%
- Eduardo Leite: 1.9%
- Marina Silva: 1.3%
- I don’t know / white / null: 4.3%
The atlasintel also tested scenarios for the second round, all involving Lula.
The petista appears in a technical draw (with numerical disadvantage) in a dispute against Tarcisio de Freitas and also against Jair Bolsonaro, who is ineligible and cannot apply. Against the other candidates, Lula has advantage.
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See the different second round scenarios:
Scenario 1
- Tarcísio de Freitas: 49%
- Lula: 47%
- White / null / I don’t know: 4%
Scenario 2
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- Lula: 48%
- Eduardo Bolsonaro: 44%
- White / null / I don’t know: 9%
Scenario 3
- Jair Bolsonaro: 49%
- Lula: 48%
- White / null / I don’t know: 4%
The search margin of the search is one percentage point, more or less. The survey was conducted with 5,710 people over the internet, between 24 and 27 February.
