The dissemination of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 2024 reinforces the expectation of slowing the growth pace of the Brazilian economy in 2025, according to the economists heard by CNN.
In an interview with CNN Money This Friday (7), Warren Investimentos chief economist Felipe Salto said the data from the last quarter of last year showed an “important slowdown.”
“We already finished last year stepping on the brake. This has macroeconomic explanations, such as the Central Bank’s decisions to raise interest rates, which has as its expected effect to brake the economy to produce compliance with the inflation target at some point in the future, ”he said.
The 2024 GDP showed a growth of 3.4% of the Brazilian economy in the consolidated year, slightly below the projections of the market and the Ministry of Finance, which estimated up 3.5% upwards. In the fourth quarter, the variation was 0.2% over the previous quarter.
Despite the 3rd consecutive year of growth above 3%, the scenario should not be repeated in 2025, according to experts.
BGC Liquidity’s chief strategist, Daniel Cunha, stressed that the statistical load smaller than expected by the market should cause revision in this year’s economic activity, which should be at 2%.
“Although it is an ordered slowdown and somewhat conducted by the Central Bank, the seizure of political reaction is growing when data begins to confirm less dynamic in the economy, especially in the labor market.”
RB Investimentos’s chief strategist, Gustavo Cruz, points out that the 2025 GDP elevation will be caused by an impulsive impulse from the agricultural sector, which was widely harmed by 2024 by climate issues that have reached production over last year.
“For 2025, we expect a 2.5% growth pulled by agribusiness, which should grow between 7.5% to 10%, according to our accounts. I understand that again we will have the parts of retail and more balanced services and the consumption of families surpassing that of the government. Industry a little weaker than GDP, but in any way still positive, ”he said.
The Ministry of Finance also believes, initially, that the growth of the Brazilian economy at 2% this year. The Folder’s Economic Policy Secretariat projects 2.3%.
“In the first quarter of 2025, the pace of growth is expected to climb the margin again, then slowing down. The expansion of agricultural activity should be in the two -digit house, mainly reverberating the record soybean harvest, ”says a note released by the Ministry of Finance.
“From the second quarter of 2025, the contribution of the agricultural sector for growth should become negative, along with the reduction in the expansion of cyclical activities. For the second half of the year, the perspective is that the pace of growth remains close to stability, reflecting lower impulses coming from credit and labor markets according to the contractionist level of monetary policy, ”he concludes.
