Article originally in the Financial Times.
Long unimaginable possibility that Ukraine will fight without American weapons, equipment and news information will probably become a reality. The White House announced on Monday that he would stop military assistance Kiev.
A high -ranking representative of the Ukrainian intelligence service said that the last US military stock is likely to be exhausted “two to three months”. “Then it will be very difficult for us,” Times told the Financial Times. “It will not be a complete collapse, but we will be forced to withdraw from areas faster.”
The help of European allies will not be enough
Tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have been reflected in the fourth Russian invasion for the fourth year since the full -fledged Russian invasion of the Russian attacks from the trenches in the east and south of Ukraine. The termination of US military aid will have far -reaching consequences for the weakened army along the entire thousands of kilometers of front line, even if the missing equipment is complemented by European allies.
Washington announced his decision to suspend military assistance three days after the rupture between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky in an oval office. She was disagreed with the disagreement of the Ukrainian leader with a ceasefire without any guarantees that would discourage Russia from future aggression. The White House on Monday said that he “suspends and re -evaluates” its military assistance to make sure that the Ukrainian leadership is “determined” to conclude a peace agreement.
According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, US military support was $ 65.9 billion in the last three years. Although Congress has earmarked nearly $ 175 billion, only part of them went directly to Ukraine. Part was used for other purposes, for example to train Ukrainian units in the United States.
US support was extensive, from the supply of artillery grenades and armored vehicles to the provision of sophisticated air defense systems, bridge vehicles, anti -tank mines and long -range missiles. It is decisive for Ukraine that this support also includes the exchange of intelligence information, which has not yet been suspended.
Strata Patriotov Bude Ranou
“In general, the influence is difficult to estimate, because a significant part of American support is not publicly mentioned,” said Michael Kofman, military analyst and manager of American think-tank Carnegie Foundation for International Peace.
In recent days, European allies have intensified the efforts to raise funds and the procurement of military equipment for Ukraine. However, Europe continues to have problems with the expansion of its arms production, and some key devices are still exclusively American.
Lack of detention missiles for five Patriot systems used by Ukraine would be a big blow for its defense capacity just as Russia is expanding its attacks by drones and missiles deeply in the Ukrainian territory. Prime Minister Denys Smyhal said on Tuesday that “Patriot is currently the only system that can shoot down Russian ballistic missiles”.
If the Ukrainian army were forced to stop using the most sophisticated air defense system in its arsenal, “Ukraine would have to make a difficult decision and set priorities,” said Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst who monitors the war for the Black Bird Group in Finland. “Will you defend the airport, power plant, or weapon factory?”
Europe will produce two million grenades
On the front line, where most of the fighting is now used by a dizzying number of drones with explosives that fly to soldiers, the outage would probably only appear after a few weeks.
Although the vast majority of drones used by Ukrainian troops are already domestic production, the army still uses a wide range of US weapons and vehicles that require constant maintenance and permanent supply of spare parts. The lack of artillery grenades could partially compensate Europe.
The EU plans to produce up to two million artillery grenades in 2025. “In general, I think that within a few months we will begin to observe a significant impact, which will be related primarily to the ability of Ukraine to lead accurate strokes,” Kofman said.
Multiple Himars, which provided the United States, allowed Ukraine to destroy high -priority goals such as command situations and logistics centers in Russia controlled. On Monday, Ukrainian special units published shots from the Himarst attack using cassette ammunition, which destroyed the modern Russian self -propelled howitzer “Malva”.
Himars and Starlink do not have a replacement
“We have no real replacement for Himars,” said Pavlo Natural, Ukrainian military analyst and co -founder of Reactive Post, which supports Ukrainian artillery units.
Himars launchers have also allowed Ukraine to use long -range missiles Atacams to intervene targets in Russia, up to 300 kilometers away. Novožnyj said that Kiev has a British and French long -range rockets Storm Shadow and Scalp, “but they are not the same, they are much slower and easier to capture”. Without American support “the front will not collapse, but Russia will proceed”, said Privrovný.
Although this is not part of the American support that Washington has suspended, the most harmful immediate step for the front troops in Ukraine would be to turn off the Starlink Elon Musk. Starlink provides satellite internet, whose use has been significantly expanded due to its speed and reliability among Ukrainian units.
“If Starlink turns off, there will be problems immediately,” wrote Jehor Firsov at the end of February, a former Ukrainian deputy who is now serving in the army. “Infantry in defense trenches, news services, drone and artillery crews, headquarters of brigades and battalions … All use Starlink.”
Although Ukrainian forces can use and also use radio communication, the battlefield decisions are largely rely on the supply of video and photos that require a stable broadband connection. “It would be a blow, but we are working on alternatives,” said an officer serving in the northeast of the country.
Washington’s striking decision to suspend help comes at a time when Ukraine speeds up efforts to develop its own capacities. “Maybe a year ago, I said we had to practice here in Ukraine as if the United States disappeared,” said Serhij Prytula, head of one of the largest Ukrainian organizations to raise funds for the army.
A few hours before Washington announced his decision to suspend military support to Ukraine, this politician and volunteer said: “We are extremely grateful for all the help that the United States provided to Ukraine, but we must take care of ourselves, develop our own defense industry along with our European partners.”
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