A problem called Hungary and a challenge called the defense. What Europe faces after “ambush” to Zelensky and “turning point” in Brussels

It was 15 minutes to discuss Ukraine support and more than 10 hours to discuss how to “remedy Europe”. In the end, 26 supported Ukraine and 27 more defense investments. After the Special European Council, there are important meetings in Paris and Riade

It was a special summit, especially summoned after Donald Trump suspended military support to Ukraine in the aftermath of a disastrous meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House last week. But was it “the turning point” from which “everything changed”, at the entrance of the meeting of Thursday?

The summit ended up after several hours with the Viktor Orbán Hungary on one side of the room and the remaining 26 European Union countries-at least in the Unquestionable Support Declaration of Ukraine, which goes through the renewed intention of having the country as the 28th Member State until 2030 and by ensuring an additional 30 billion euros loan from 2025, paid with the wide-scale invasion of the invasion .

“The problem with Viktor Orbán is that, in fact, he was only able to isolate himself in this European council, stressing how he is problematic to have actually acting as a foreign agent within the EU,” Julien Hoez, a geopolitical expert and editor of The French Display, tells CNN.

As said the president of the European Council, António Costa, to journalists, “an isolated country does not create a division.” But it creates problems for an EU that you want a voice. “Once again,” says Hoez, “the idea of ​​expelling Hungary from the EU is raised because it is constantly harmful and now actively provoking an existential weakness in a moment of great danger.”

that the talks about Ukraine took about 15 minutes to complete. But there were more than ten hours when heads of government debated how to finance the defense sector and how much money to be spent on and out of doors.

At least at this point no one can say that the meeting was not a success, especially in view of what many claim to be the interests of Vladimir Putin. (Since January 20, when Trump took office, the first and only sign of pressure on Moscow arrived on Friday, when he said he is “considering strongly bank sanctions, sanctions and tariffs on Russia, until a ceasefire and a final peace agreement are achieved”).

Costa did not wait for Orbán’s green light or the end of the meeting when he announced that Europeans continue alongside Kiev for whatever comes and comes. Robert’s Slovakia, who set off for the meeting behind, made a commitment to the resumption of Russian gas traffic via Ukraine. And even Hungary, although isolated as Kiev, subscribed to the final statement about the need for the EU to reinforce expenses with its own defense (even if it disagrees the way money is raised and spent).

The final statement, such as this debate, was based on the ambitious plan “Rearmar to Europe”, which Ursula Von Der Leyen, the committee’s chairman, presented to the leaders to raise up to 800 billion euros in the coming years. At this point, it now has to wait for May 19, when Brussels will present his white book about defense to get to know more details.

Americans and Ukrainians gather in Riyadh

You can even talk about success, but for now it is all pretense, aspirations, and statements of intent, sported not only but above all by the withdrawal of US support from Ukraine-a decision that some, such as NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, continue to believe it is “temporary”.

With Trump you never know. And as in the aftermath of the European Council, “the EU is doing exactly what Trump wants” and yet “he still doesn’t care.” The same man who stated that “the EU was created to sand the United States”-ignoring all postwar efforts so that on this side of the Atlantic there was a bulwark of democracy that contradicts the influence of the Soviets-it is now the one who commands the United States with a packet of notes in hand.

Those who do not pay do not play, and that’s what their team made it clear shortly after the European Council, suggesting that the US may not even protect NATO allies that do not contribute to a certain percentage of GDP to common defense. This is the same team that, allegedly gathered behind the scenes with Zelensky opponents in Ukraine, marked one in Saudi Arabia-Zelensky will be in Riyadh, but will not be present at Tuesday.

Is this another attempt to subdue Ukraine to his interests, in particular to be able to close his desired rare mineral exploration agreement in the country at war? “Of course, the analyst replies, because” there are increasing signs that Trump simply wants to leave Ukraine at all costs, even if it means the total destruction of Ukraine, which would give Russia more strength and lead to a renewed conflict in the years following any ‘end’ of the conflict, and the likely loss of access to the minerals that Trump wants. “

Even so, Hoez invokes some encouraging signs. “Although Zelensky will not attend these meetings, it does not mean that he will not benefit from them in any way. We will have to be aware of the consequences, especially with Trump’s smoother language from the catastrophic ambush to the Ukrainian President in the White House. ”

If there were still doubts about how little Trump’s US seems to matter with Ukraine and the EU, it is worth remembering that the same Rubio Marco who met Russian homologous, Sergei Lavrov a few days ago, refused to meet with Kaja Kallas when the European Block’s head of diplomacy moved to Washington this week.

Closed this summit, it remains to be eyeing the latest movements, not just the EU or the US. On Friday morning, von der Leyen and Costa called the video of allies with which they can still count on-the UK Prime Minister Keir Stmerer, along with the leaders of Canada, Norway, and Turkey, who gives it all in a new position of strength.

“We believe it is in our mutual interest to coordinate all measures related to European security with Turkey,” Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the leader of the country who, for decades, told the European club. “Given the support of our Ukraine Defense Industry and the inabalable contributions of our private sector, despite the conditions of war, we consider it unjustifiable that Turkey is excluded from acquisition programs and reconstruction initiatives [da indústria de Defesa] EU. ”

“Interested Coalition” gathers in Paris

Also the video conferencing was due to and, from Budapest, Orbán made known that he intends to lead Ukraine’s adhesion to popular consultation, because allowing the country to enter the bloc means that “Europe will be destroyed, including the Hungarian economy.” The head of government did not say when he intends to carry out this inquiry, whose results will not be legally binding, but the promise denotes that it will remain the great stone in the shoe of Europeans.

“The question is not if Orbán has a negative effect on the attempts of the EU showing a united front, because we have seen Macron around the pro-Russian block,” says Julien Hoez. “The question is how the EU neutralizes Hungary as a herald of our destruction.”

And if Hungary is the stone in one of the EU shoes, the other stone is obviously Russia. Invested in putting troops in Ukraine, UK and France say that there is for this force of peacekeeping, to be highlighted as a potential ceasefire or peace agreement with Russia whose contours are still impossible to predict. But this remains a very distant scenario, the expert points out.

“According to the plan that is being developed, European troops would be on the ground after an initial ceasefire, something that is extremely unlikely to be successful if we look at Putin’s behavior.”

While decisions are not closed, London is outlining a plan to create a 120 -fighter European air force to be highlighted to patrol the skies of Kiev and Western Ukraine, protecting the country from Russian attacks “without necessarily provoking a wider conflict with Moscow.”

Prepared by military experts, and with the potential to “have a greater military, political and socioeconomic impact than 10,000 terrestrial troops”, the British military plan on the morning of the Extraordinary European Council – and deserved an immediate reaction from Kremlin.

Asked by journalists, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made it clear that sending troops or even Sky Shield will correspond to “direct, official and non -veiled involvement of NATO members in the war against Russia.” “We can’t allow it,” said Lavrov. But it will surely be on the menu of the meeting that Macron is organizing next week in Paris with the highest European military heads.

“With Macron to meet with the ‘coalition of stakeholders’ in the coming days, and Turkey stressing that it is interested in involving, it seems that we could have a considerable dissuasive force capable of ensuring some form of peace if it is highlighted on the ground,” says Hoez-“which is another reason Russia refuses to let it happen.”