Chinese war ships have been circulating the Australian coast for more than three weeks, about 320 kilometers from Sydney and performing unprecedented fire exercises on its border with New Zealand.
The exercises, which took place without formal warning from the Chinese government, caused deep dismay in both nations.
Suddenly, the spectrum of China’s military power was no longer confined to the distant water of the Southern China Sea or the Taiwan Strait, where territorial aggression increased under the command of Xi Jinping.
At the same time, they were spotted near Vietnam and Taiwan, part of a demonstration of Chinese naval force in the Pacific region that regularly shakes the Allies of the United States.
China did not apologize and insisted that it complied with international law, with state media suggesting that Western countries should get used to in nearby waters.
In the past, Washington partners found comfort in firm ties with the US, but that was before Donald Trump’s explosive meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and the US leader’s order to interrupt help to Ukraine as she fights the Russian invasion.
The confusion in the Oval Hall has served to sharpen the anxieties in the Pacific capitals: If the US is willing to turn their backs on Ukraine, would they do the same in Asia if they are confronted by Beijing?
Russia’s acceptance of Russia and her cold shoulder to Europe has increased the trepidation in the Indo-Pacific region, where many nations look at the US to keep Chinese aggression under control.
“This raises questions about whether the US will be committed to regional security. And even if the US remains committed, what will the Trump government ask in return? ” Asked Collin Koh, researcher at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), in Singapore.
Experts say it is a fair question of allies who have long trusted the US to provide security guarantees, allowing them to limit their own defense spending.
They add that it may now be the time, for American partners, such as Australia and New Zealand, reexamine budgets and narrow regional alliances with other countries that can be exposed while Trump chases their mantra “America first.”
“Determination Test”
Australia has ensured that the world is aware of China’s movements in international waters in the South Pacific, issuing daily updates of Australian Navy ships and spy aircraft.
Defense Minister Richard Marles said the data would be analyzed to determine exactly what China was doing – and which message intended to send.
China’s ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, maintained that China was no threat to Australia, while signaling that more visits of war ships should be expected.
“As a great power in this region … It is normal for China to send its ships to different parts of the region to conduct various types of activities,” Xiao told Australian public station ABC.
Across the Pacific in Washington, Trump was sending his own message to US partners in Europe that they needed to increase military spending in defense of Ukraine.
Prior to his turbulent meeting with Zelensky, Trump intended to sign a mineral resources agreement with the Ukrainian leader so that the US could recover part of the cost of his help to Ukraine since the invasion of Russia.
But the signature ceremony has been canceled, with Trump telling Zelensky on his social Truth social platform to “go back when ready for peace.”
By cutting later military aid to Ukraine, Trump was trying to force the rich European nations to bear part of the cargo, experts say.
“He believes that they have all been enjoying the United States for half a century,” said Peter Dean, director of foreign policy and defense of the United Studies Center at Sydney University.
The measure seemed to yield fruits when on Tuesday (4). The EU revealed a plan to allow the Member States to borrow € 150 billion to increase their defense spending and “massively increase” their military support to Kiev.
Dean says Trump wants a peace agreement in Ukraine; However, he is ignoring Zelensky’s concerns about the longevity of this peace without measures to keep Putin under control.
“It seems that (Trump) almost wants peace at any price instead of just and equitable peace, or a peace you keep,” he said.
“The question is, how is the agreement? And that’s what everyone is concerned with. How much is he willing to negotiate? ”He asked.
While Trump overthrows the transatlantic alliance – a western security pillar for decades, his government has signaled that the US should end conflicts elsewhere to focus on dissuading China in the Pacific.
The urgency of this goal was highlighted by China’s latest military force flexion.
“It’s a determination test, for sure,” said Drew Thompson, a senior member of RSIS in Singapore, about China’s military exercises.
“China (is) carving a sphere of influence in the Pacific to test whether countries in the region will resist that,” he added.
Aukus: What is this?
Even before Trump’s confrontation with Zelensky, the presence of Chinese war ships on his southern coast had focused on Australia’s attention to Aukus, his Multibillionaire Security Agreement with the US and the United Kingdom.
Concerns arose about whether the deal could resist the whites of the White House when a British reporter asked the US president if he and his UK colleague had spoken about Aukus.
“What does that mean?” Trump replied. The incident was later discarded by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as a matter of accents. “I think we’ll have to limit questions to the Americans he can understand,” he said.
Dean of the University of Sydney said it is not bad that Trump has not read the acronym because the deal already has the full support of his closest counselors.
This support was consolidated by Australia’s first initial payment of US $ 500 million to reinforce the production of submarines in America, with the agreement that some nuclear-powered submarines will be sold to Australia to increase their military capacity in Indo-Pacific.
It’s the kind of agreement that Trump will want to focus on the future, said Dean.
“He is looking to make money for the United States and is looking to make better deals. And Aukus is an exemplary agreement for them, ”said Dean.
“For Europeans, I wouldn’t underestimate Donald Trump looking at it and saying, if Australians can do this, why can’t you?”
‘No tolerance for profiteers’
Elsewhere in the Pacific, US allies seemed bothered by the extraordinary scenes in the Oval Hall.
Japan Prime Minister Shigero Ishiba adopted a cautious tone, insisting that he had “no intention to take sides” when asked about the Trump-Zelensky confrontation.
However, he promised to do his best to “maintain US involvement and promote unity” among the nations of the seven group – suggesting a growing concern about the western alliance fracture.
“Today’s Ukraine may be tomorrow’s east Asian,” he added. “We must also consider it constantly increasing our dissuasive power to avoid war.”
Japan, which has territorial disputes with China in the East China Sea, has raised concerns about increasing Chinese military maneuvers in its nearby waters.
Last year, a Chinese aircraft carrier entered the contiguous waters of Japan for the first time.
South Korea, another US ally in the East Asia, refused to comment on the meeting between Trump and Zelensky, but said he was closely monitoring the US suspension of military aid to Ukraine.
Trump repeatedly asked allies like South Korea to pay more for US troops parked in their territory.
In a speech to Congress on Tuesday night, he made a veiled threat when referring to what he called unfair rates that South Korea imposes on US products, something Seoul denies.
“We give so much help militarily and many other ways to South Korea. But that’s what happened, this is happening by friends and enemies,” said Trump.
the autonomous democracy that China promised to absorb one day, Defense Minister Wellington Koo tried to reassure confidence, despite what he described as “rapid and bizarre changes” in the international scene.
“I think the US won’t go back from the Indo-Pacific region because that is its main interest,” he told reporters in a briefing on Tuesday, citing washington shared interests in economic, geopolitical and military security in the US.
But Koo also agreed with Trump’s posture of “America in the first place”.
“In international politics, we also realize that we cannot just talk about values and not talk about interests. Of course, the United States must value their own national interests, ”he added.
Experts say the US has been frustrated that they have to bear the weight of other countries that do not contribute to their own defense.
“The Trump government made clear its lack of tolerance. There was no tolerance for profiteers, ”said Thompson of RSIS in Singapore.
“I think the countries that receive this clearer message and quickly are those that will be the good partners of the United States, because it’s not like the US being abandoning allies. What the US is doing is prioritizing the most capable, ”said Thompson.
