Before we look at the data, a brief reminder: having a commercial deficit with another country means that the US imports more goods and services in this country than they export. Although Trump often describes trade deficits such as subsidies or losses, having a deficit does not mean that the US is giving money in exchange for nothing
For years, Donald Trump has exaggerated the size of US business deficits with several other countries. Now, while the president cites these business deficits as a fundamental justification for their tariff policies, recently disseminated federal statistics show how Trump’s numbers are wrong.
The federal figures previously released by 2023 and part of 2024 had already shown that Trump’s statements about US deficits with Canada, Mexico, China and the European Union were very wrong. Now, the Department of Commerce has published the figures for the year 2024, which allow us to say accurately to what extent.
The figures were released on Thursday, hours before Trump announced a break until April 2 in his channel and Mexican rates covered by the US-Mixico-Canada agreement that he signed in his first term.
Before we look at the data, a brief reminder: having a commercial deficit with another country means that the US imports more goods and services in this country than they export. Although Trump often describes trade deficits such as subsidies or losses, having a deficit does not mean that the US is giving money in exchange for nothing.
For example, the US commercial deficit with Canada exists largely because the US imports a large amount of heavy pissing channel oil, which helps maintain low gasoline prices for US drivers.
Canada
Trump, who on Tuesday imposed 25% tariffs on almost all imports in Canada (10% over energy), said repeatedly this year that the US has a commercial deficit of “200 billion” with Canada – sometimes making the statement explicitly and sometimes using a more vague language over a $ 200 billion loss to Canada.
Trump’s number is nowhere near to be correct. New federal statistics show that the 2024 deficit with Canada in the trade of goods and services was $ 25.7 billion, below $ 40.6 billion by 2023.
Even if we count only the trade of goods and ignore the trade in services in which the US stands out, the 2024 deficit with Canada was $ 70.6 billion. In 2023 it was $ 72.3 billion.
Mexico
Trump also imposed 25% rates on products imported from Mexico. The president said in an interview with Fox News in February that the US has “a deficit with Mexico of $ 350 billion.”
Once again, this is far from reality. The new federal numbers show that the 2024 deficit with Mexico in the trade of goods and services was $ 179 billion, above 162.1 billion by 2023.
The 2024 deficit with Mexico only in the goods trade was 181.5 billion and 161.4 billion in 2023.
China
Trump, who imposed a series of tariffs on his first and second presidential terms on China imported products, said in an interview with Fox News Radio in February that the US has “a deficit with China over over $ 1 billion.” He repeated the number of “billion dollars” in a speech in February.
This is also a huge exaggeration. The new federal numbers show that the deficit with China in 2024 in the trade of goods and services was $ 263.3 billion. This represents an increase compared to 252.1 billion in 2023 – but is lower than in every year of Trump’s first presidency.
Business deficits increase and decrease for numerous reasons other than presidential policy. But we mentioned the fact that the Biden era deficits are smaller than the Trump era deficits, because Trump said Biden left the deficit with China “escape to control.”
The 2024 deficit with China only in the goods trade was 295.2 billion, while by 2023 it was 278.7 billion.
European Union
Trump has regularly, and incorrectly, punished for the European Union for his business practices. In February, he told reporters that “with the European Union, the deficit is $ 350 billion.”
At a later event, also in February, he said the deficit with the European Union was “about $ 300 billion.”
Once again wrong. The new federal numbers show that the 2024 deficit with the European Union in Commerce of Goods and Services was $ 161.1 billion, and 125.1 billion by 2023.
But the 2024 deficit with the European Union only in the trade of goods was 236.7 billion, above 201.6 billion in 2023. Thus, telling only Trump’s statements about the deficit with the European Union are a little closer to the truth than its statements about Canada, Mexico and China – but are not really close to truth.
