The war in Ukraine enters a turning point. In Yeda, Saudi Arabia, this week is held a key meeting between representatives of the United States and Ukraine, in which Washington presses kyiv to accept a negotiated solution with Moscow. Meanwhile, Russia hardens its position on occupied territories and reinforces its attacks against the Ukrainian civil population.
The Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, heads the US delegation with a clear objective: to bring the position of Ukraine to Washington before raising a specific offer to Moscow. The administration of Donald Trump considers that the war has extended too much and that continuing to support kyiv without advances in the negotiation only wears out to the West. With this argument, the US President has conditioned the continuity of the military support at the disposition of Ukraine to negotiate.
Zelenski, on the other hand, has reiterated that his country will not accept agreements behind him and has sent his team to discuss with the Trump administration amid a growing tension. Ukraine continues to demand the total recovery of its territory and security guarantees to avoid future Russian aggressions. However, Washington’s pressure has pushed kyiv to consider options such as supervised fire or postpon the discussion about Crimea and the regions occupied for future negotiation.
The Ukrainian President has traveled to Saudi Arabia with the intention of strengthening the diplomatic pathway. He has met with the heir prince, Mohamed Bin Salmán, and has guaranteed his commitment to achieve results in the meeting with the US delegation. “We hope the meeting is productive,” he said before his arrival at Yeda.
The United States, however, wants more than statements. The White House evaluates to what extent kyiv is willing to make tangible concessions to Russia. “You can’t say ‘I want peace’ and deny you to give in anything,” said a senior American official. Another has warned that if Ukraine insists on recovering the 2014 or 2022 borders, “that tells you something” about its real disposition to a commitment.
The background of the negotiation also includes an important economic agreement. Trump seeks that Ukraine firm a pact that gives US companies preferential rights on strategic minerals and other natural resources. The White House presents it as a source of income for the reconstruction of the country, but in kyiv there are doubts about the scope of this assignment of economic sovereignty. Trump, however, is convinced that the pact will be signed. “They will do it, but I want peace to also want … have not shown it enough,” he said.
In parallel, Russia observes the evolution of these negotiations without giving in their demands. The Foreign Minister, Serguéi Lavrov, has reiterated that Ukraine must accept “the new territorial realities” and has ruled out any intervention of European peace forces in the conflict. Moscow insists on consolidating its control over Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporiyia and Jersón, but has shown some interest in resuming relations with the West if agreements are reached in other areas.
Europe, meanwhile, presses so that peace does not imply a covert surrender of Ukraine. The United Kingdom, France and Germany have presented an alternative proposal for the cessation of hostilities with safety guarantees for kyiv, while Trump continues to maneuver so that Zelenski accepts an agreement with economic and territorial concessions.
Saudi Arabia, which acts as a mediator, seeks to consolidate its diplomatic role in the global scene and has offered its territory for future negotiations. Mohamed Bin Salmán has maintained contacts with all parties and has insisted that the priority is to achieve a stable peace. However, the margin of maneuver is reduced. In recent days, Russia has intensified its attacks in eastern Ukraine, which some analysts interpret as an attempt to reach the negotiating table with a position of greater force.
Zelenski pressure is evident. Trump has warned that the United States will not maintain its military support indefinitely if kyiv does not show flexibility in negotiations. In his last meeting in Washington, the Ukrainian President received a clear message: or there is advances in an agreement or US support will be drastically reduced. In response, Zelenski has reaffirmed its position and has indicated that any decision must have the support of the Ukrainian population, which could translate into a referendum on peace.
While leaders negotiate in Yeda, reality in Ukraine is another. During the last week, Russia has launched more than 80 missiles, 1,200 guided air pumps and 870 attack drones against Ukrainian cities. The bombings in Dobropilia, in the Donetsk region, have left at least eleven dead and fifty injured, while in Krivi Rig, a ballistic missile has caused six fatal victims and has damaged dozens of residential buildings, schools and hospitals.
In this context, Zelenski has insisted that Ukraine needs more air defense systems and has denounced that Russia continues to use Western components in its attacks, despite the sanctions. “Putin must be stopped. We need a fair and lasting peace, with true security guarantees, ”he has written on his social networks.
Conversations in Saudi Arabia will define the immediate future of war. Diplomatic pressure and conflict fatigue could push the parties to look for an exit, although the differences remain deep and any agreement still seems distant.
