Last years have been lavish in instability, largely due to Milorad Dodik’s actions and rhetoric (pictured), President of the Serbian Republic, one of the two entities in which Bosnia and Herzegovina was divided after the 1995 Dayton agreements, which ended the war in the country in the country
It was clearly that NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, in Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina, that the Atlantic Alliance is totally committed to that country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
“We will not allow the harshly conquered peace to be concerned,” said Rutte, in statements to journalists, after gathering with the tripartite presidency of Bosnia and having urged their members to assume their responsibilities.
The last years have been lavish in instability, largely due to the actions and rhetoric of Milorad Dodik, President of the Serbian Republic, one of the two entities in which Bosnia and Herzegovina was divided after the 1995 Dayton agreements, which ended the war in the country.
“For some time ago Milorad Dodik has aimed to undermine state institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina and affirm greater autonomy for the Serbian Republic, potentially opening the way to secession,” CNN ADNAN CERIMAGIC, senior analyst for Western Balcans of the European Stability Initiative (ESI).
Dodik’s decision made last week from prohibiting the access of judicial and police institutions to the Serbian Republic, “it is part of his wider effort to weaken the central authority, reinforce the total control of the Serbian Republic over its territory and, in doing so, avoiding the potential consequences of the current judicial process before the state judicial system,” says the expert.
Dodik was sentenced to one year in prison – a decision subject to appeal – for challenging the authority of the high representative, a figure created in Dayton to supervise the agreement and ensure that he would not be undermined by nationalist politicians and local authorities. The process dates back to 2023, when the Parliament of the Serbian Republic approved two extraordinary measures: the suspension of the validity of the decisions of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the termination of the publication of the decrees and laws of the high representative, at this time the German Christian Schmidt, which eventually nullified the two laws.
In March 2024, Schmidt took a new step that he enraged Dodik, taking steps to try to contain electoral fraud in what he defined a “electoral integrity pack.” , in the “reinforcement of transparency and security throughout the electoral process, from principle to end, involving the electronic identification of voters, video surveillance and electronic counting of the votes.” The leader of the Serbian Republic threatened to boycott the functioning of the national tripartite government if these measures were forward.
For Cerimagic, the measures taken last week have, first than anything, a personal purpose, to “avoid the completion of the judicial process against themselves.” However, there is something bigger in its view: “ensure greater autonomy [para a República Sérvia]erode the status of state of Bosnia and Herzegovina and, in the long run, create conditions for the eventual separation of the Serbian Republic ”from the state in which it is inserted.
Several international actors are already on the event. In a discourse before the organization for cooperation and security in Vienna, he expressed “his concern for the approval of laws by the National Assembly of the Serbian Republic, in violation of Dayton’s agreements” and reaffirmed “his unequivocal commitment to the territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina.” Also and underlined this concern.
On the other hand, of course, are Viktor Orbán and Russia, which considered the decision of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina to suspend advanced measures last week by Dodik as “a blow to stability in the Balkan region.”
Milorad Dodik and Vladimir Putin during a meeting at Kremlin, May 23, 2023 (Alexey Filippov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
What Dodik might not count was with the disapproval of the US and his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, “are undermining the institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina and threatening their safety and stability.”
“Dodik and his allies were quite clear about their intention to explore divisions between the US and Europe, as well as within EU and NATO, to promote their agenda. They also bet on the support of actors such as Serbia, Hungary, Russia and Donald Trump administration. His hope was to change the facts on the ground while western unity is shaken and pressure on its separatist ambitions weakens, ”Cenn Portugal tells CNN.
However, Rubio’s position “countered Dodik’s expectation that a Trump administration would ignore Bosnia or support him.” Still, the analyst underlines, there is no reason for celebrations.
“Given the change in US priorities in Europe, EU capitals cannot take US support as guaranteed and should prepare for a future in which Washington DC moves away from the Balkans.”
Cerimagic leaves another alert to Europe and Bosnia, who should face the risks of this tension, which “threatens the stability of the country” in a “serious” way. “Although a war is unlikely, Rhetoric and Dodik’s actions increase tensions and instability can lead to localized confrontations or a wider agitation. A firm and coordinated reaction is essential, ”says the expert.
