In presenting to the City Council of O, the mayor () cited Macaé, Itaperuna, Angra dos Reis, Cabo Frio and Araruama, cities in the interior of the state, as places they watch.
After ending the written speech, he ended a makeshift speech with a kind of campaign slogan: “The free river of banditry, free from vagabond is what we expect.”
The speech in February summarized the main aspects of the first signs of 2026. The mayor has been trying to combine direct attacks on the governor () while nodding pockets through a “hardline” rhetoric in the safety area.
The bill for the creation of the municipal force – (6) – was another step in that direction. After three terms without committing to the formation of armed agents to act in public security ,.
“You can’t treat the subject of safety ideologically. It has the class of the ‘victim of society’ on the one hand and the ‘good bad guy is dead bandit’ class. This discussion is not anywhere and who suffers are the workers, children and families in the hands of these marginals, these delinquents,” he said in social network.
The strategy is similar to that adopted in the municipal election when, after giving together the support of the main leftist leaders, it signaled conservative voters. The goal is to expand support in the state where former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) beat the president in 2022.
The scenario for 2026 is similarly drawn if the petista competes for reelection.
Paes continues to compete in Guanabara Palace, although it is considered right by close allies. The mayor, however, states that he intends to lead a front of opposition to Castro, which would justify his criticism of the governor.
Another signaling of the strategy was the so -called “ADPF of the favelas”, whereby the Supreme Court (STF) imposed rules for police operations.
Like Castro, Paes criticized the action and stated that the court’s action inhibited the action of the agents. However, he said that the governor uses the process as an excuse for public security problems.
“More than what is written in decisions, the impression is that it has served as an excuse for those who do not want to work or have no competence to enforce authority and monopoly [do uso] state force in certain areas of the territory. On the other hand, it creates a feeling that Rio de Janeiro has become a kind of resort for delinquents, “said the mayor.
Sociologist Daniel Hirata, coordinator of Geni-UFF (Study Group on New Illegalisms of the Fluminense Federal University), says the lines of Paes and Castro are getting closer.
“They approach this quite functional rhetoric in Brazil that rests on the symbols of suffering to have electoral gains. This is what is called criminal populism. Before, Paes tried to at least convey a more technical appearance, but changed,” said Hirata.
Daniela Fichino, Deputy Director of Global Justice, says Paes took four years to position herself about the ADPF and see electoral connotation at the time used for the demonstration, together with the creation of the municipal force.
“The ‘timing’ relates to Eduardo Paes’s political-election intention for the coming years and the fact that he knows that the election will be based on public security responses,” she said.
Fichino questions the need to create the Armed Municipal Force in view of the security rates in the current city compared to other years in which Paes was in office, in which he did not strive on the subject.
Data from ISP (Institute of Public Security) show that the number of street thefts-a fight against the future municipal force-increased by 19% from 2023 to 2024. However, the volume of records from last year (37,449) is less than 8 of the 12 years in which Paes was ahead of City Hall (2009-2016 and from 2021).
The rules provided for the future municipal force, but also displeased Bolsonarists. One prohibits the possession of a gun out of service of future agents. On the other hand, the bill did not include the provision for use of body cameras, criticism equipment from the former president’s group.
Last week, Paes had to change the project to include strength within the Municipal Guard and allow his agents to integrate. This was another complaint from Bolsonaro’s allies in the City Council.
This is not the first time Paes has to balance between attacks on a pocketist and nod to the former president’s electorate. In 2018, during the second round of the state election against Wilson Witzel (then on the PSC), the mayor of Public Security.
“Deputy Jair Bolsonaro has an important agenda in the field of public security. This is a priority of him. This is such a matter so relevant to Rio de Janeiro that it makes, in this field, we move much more. As this is a priority agenda, I have no doubt that I have another programmatic identity in this field,” he said, under discussion of the newspaper O Globo.
In 2018, Paes to Guanabara Palace within the East Military Command after a meeting with the then intervener, General Walter Braga Netto, where he discussed the state’s public security situation. He was defeated by Witzel.
